Posted by
Bill Crawford on Sunday, July 31, 2011 7:59:45 PM
I've been holding off on comment on this one, as it unfolds before us in fits and starts. Well, it only seems that way. There will not be agreement until the last minute, for two big reasons. One, both sides know that it is critical to come to agreement and two, the two sides are too far apart to make it happen sooner. That is to say, neither diametrically opposed side has the power to make it happen alone.
The first great narrative of all this is our esteemed President. Obama is a narcissistic fool and loves being at the center of the whirlwind, but he was only allowed to stay there as long as he did because his party was hoping that his assistance could help them overcome those rascally Republicans.
He has long since crapped out of negotiating with the Republicans seriously, because when he got through with calling them "hostage takers", he lectured us for months about how we were going to leave old people, children, autistics and the like on their own. That isn't a good lead negotiating position, but nothing much was lost in the process. He and we weren't going on any honeymoons soon.
Then last Monday, he got on television and made good on his Reaganesque threat to go to the people with his message. We'll skip over his DailyKos version of the history of the debt (it was Bush's fault, I wasn't even there)- that didn't burn any new bridges, either. No, what destroyed him there was his "demand" that the reps of both parties march like good second graders to the White House the following day and "report" to him what they were going to do about all this.
I understand his view of the Constitution was probably matured in the hallowed halls of the Ivy League, but the denizens of Capitol Hill take the three equal branches stuff pretty seriously, and you don't treat them like that. That stupidity is likely what drove Harry Reid into his "we're the last train leaving the station" game plan, and Obama has been trying to shoehorn his way back in ever since.
On top of that, the President's constant scare tactics with the possible interruption in Medicare and Social Security payments, while it hasn't changed the polling on the issue, has managed to put the worry into quite a few people. They have been calling the offices of many Congressmen and Senators, annoying the hell out of their staffs and this hasn't translated well into a sense of charity for Obama on the Hill.
Reid has decided that he is the savior here. He not only pushed Boehner's plan in the same circular file that he dumped "Cut, cap and balance" into, he is presently stonewalling the parliamentary process of his own plan as far as possible (early Sunday morning), in order to whip his own votes into line.
Now that it has been shown that Reid doesn't hold any more sway in the House than Boehner has in the Senate, they will finally see that their only way out is a mutual deal, which will involve two stages, the last one being punted to a committee that will either pull up the last $1.4 trillion in cuts by Thanksgiving, or have them forced across the board soon afterward. I'll believe this when I see it, but it evidently has been written with enough teeth in it to satisfy the Tea Party coalition.
The Republicans get a deal with no revenues added, and the Democrats get a number that carries them past the 2012 election. This whole thing is likely to annoy their base immensely. I speak confidently of this because I am happy with how it turned out.
Why did it turn out this way? Because the Tea Party coalition is still the most stubborn, solid and stable political faction in the country right now. Their power comes from the legions of independents out there still scared witless of the mounting debt.
This is not a partnership built on stone, though. It can still be fractured by conservative insistence on using it as a piggy back for social issues. Fortunately, the Tea Party and the Republicans they support are as aware of this as they were in 2010.
There is a true sea change coming next year, it probably won't happen before then. The elections next year are going to be a real kick in the teeth to the Democrats, but they earned it with the way they have governed since 2009.
After that, there will be a reform of the tax code, which will meet with Wisconsin style anger. And there will be a referndum in the states on a Constitiutional balanced budget amendment, which will make Wisconsin look like Pee Wee's Playhouse.
There is a lesson to be learned here. You can't get too far ahead of the people. Obama isn't the first national figure to operate under the umbrella of 'eventually the will see our wisdom', but he managed to use the eco crisis of September 2008 and a favorable election to push things far beyond what the country was willing to handle.
There are about 30 million people out there in the electorate who completely agree with that direction, and it will be my job to raise their blood pressure to boiling in about sixteen months. For thoseof you still pleading for civility in the public square, I suggest you tune out. It won't be pretty.
But it has to be done.