Posted by
Bill Crawford on Friday, September 25, 2009 11:35:00 PM
This is not the first time I've addressed this subject, but after watching some good teams play out 3 hour+ marathons, I must come back to it. This addresses three of the great pitching revolutions that are religion today. First, the five man pitching rotation started by Gil Hodges and Rube Walker in 1968 with the NY Mets. Second, the advent of pitch counts in the late '80's. Last, also in the '80's, the use of a stopper/ closer relief pitcher for no more than one inning a game.
Of these three, research that I've seen bears out the rationality of only one: holding a pitcher to a limited pitch count (100-110 a game) and then rehabbing the pitcher's arm properly afterwards prevents a lot of short and long term damage. The same research shows that, given the proper rehab, there is virtually no performance difference on three or four days rest.
That means that, if you are not abusing a starting pitcher's arm on their rotation day, you should be easily able to run a four man rotation instead of the now standard five.
The use of closers for one inning only comes from two things: an overreaction to abuses of some good pitchers a few decades ago (most notably Bruce Sutter) and the onset of the three run or less rule for the glory statistic, "saves".
I think your best two relievers should not be chasing saves, but coming in when they have the most game impact- one run down, tied or one run up (two runs down if you have a great offense), and used for two innings, not just one. The same research shows that using a pitcher in relief for just over 100 innings a year, if not abused on game day, doesn't change performance from a constant one inning use.
What does that add up to? Let's chalk it out:
5 Man Rotation, 1 inning Relief 4 Man Rotation, 2 inn. Relief
Starts Innings Pitched Starts Innings Pitched
Starter 1 32 230 36 260
Starter 2 32 210 36 240
Starter 3 30 190 34 220
Starter 4 26 160 30 180
Games Innings Pitched Games Innings Pitched
Reliever 1 60 80 50 110
Reliever 2 50 60 50 100
Total Starts/ Total IP Total Starts/ Total IP
120 930 136 1110
That's an estimated total of 180 innings more, or 20 full games a season, being thrown by the top pitchers on the team.
That means at least one less pitching change per game. It means less 30 pitch innings tossed up by guys who should be in the minor leagues. It means less runs scored, all of which translates into games that average a half hour less than the three hours they do now. The only people that lose out on that are the networks, who have learned to bank on the extra ad revenue. Oh, and all the hitters that pad their numbers up by teeing off on the frag arms that teams are left with to get through the sixth and seventh innings. The guys this program would ship back to AAA ball.
It also means carrying one less pitcher on the 25 man team roster, freeing up a slot for another position player.
But baseball people are creatures of habit. Walker and Hodges went to the five man rotation on a last place team, meaning they had nothing to lose. They won the World Series the following year on dominant pitching, and the world took notice. Having nothing to lose, a good idea and some talent to make it work is a rare combination.
The first people to try it will make out like bandits for at least one glorious season.