Posted by
Bill Crawford on Friday, February 20, 2009 11:38:14 AM
One of the "traditions" we lived through in New York was the Oscar party, hosted by friends of ours. Sadly, he ended up in a job working the graveyard shift, and that routine died. While it was alive, though, I was usually at or near the top of the prediction list that we would all compete on.
This was never because of my cinematic acumen. It was always about the predictability of the oh-so-obvious Hollywood population.
Over the last decade, a new generation of Academy voters has taken charge of how the group hands out membership. The standards were somewhat stricter, and they were gravitated more towards the producer than the actor. This changed the same-ol', same-ol' enough where I was caught by surprise a few times in the years hence.
Now that this pattern has solidified, the predictability is back. So here goes:
Slumdog Millionaire. Mickey Rourke. Kate Winslet. Heath Ledger. Penelope Cruz. It's like taking candy from a baby.
It's all about their values, which also derives their politics. It is why Clint Eastwood can become the pre-eminent Director of our times, sweep everything on Oscar night a decade ago depicting a troubled gunfighter regretting his lifestyle ("Unforgiven"), and getting totally snubbed this year in an even more mature flick about a racist who finds redemption with (at least in part) the use of an M-1 lying around the house ("Gran Torino").
Hollywood will continue to put out product I can find inspiration from. They will even occasionally find me dropping jaw in astonishment, which is the state you would have found me in after the first wordless half hour of "Wall-E".
But when the average denizen of that town puts their values on the screen, you would probably make more money betting on the thing not making money than the Producers ever will. It's a sick town in the center of the flakiest basin of the craziest state in the union.
Editor's Note: It looks like only hit four out of five. I should have known that Sean Penn playing up a gay icon from San Francisco should have been the better bet. What on Earth was I thinking?