Posted by
Bill Crawford on Tuesday, August 24, 2010 5:52:47 PM
In 2004, I predicted the Presidential election results within two percent in June. It wasn't because I am especially prescient (I certainly mangled my early predictions four years later), but I recognized some phenomena. The two great values coalitions that we see around us all the time had hardened after 2002, and the number of undecideds in the polling at that point was unusally low. Also, the great X-factor of motivated turnout that often does not become obvious until the last minute was clear to me. The Kerry Democrats had all but announced it to the world that they were going all-out, and Karl Rove's microtargeting efforts to counter were no secret to the GOP. The only surprise left was when the Democrats found out that their turnout efforts were bested. This is the big reason why the Kerry campaign ate dinner on Election Day thinking Bush would concede when the polls closed on the West coast- they had no idea the Republicans could be as good on the street as they were.
Well, here we are again. Obama entered the 2008 campaign hoping to create a political transformation, a la Roosevelt in 1933 or Reagan in 1980. Well, they may well do exactly that- but not the way they hoped.
Scott Rasmussen has some interesting thoughts on the latest edge of the value clash between the American Hatfields and the McCoys. He says there is an ongoing battle between the political class (or elite) and the mainstream public. The bulk of both parties tend to hold sway with the mainstream, but the people who run the parties tend heavily toward the political class.
In the GOP, there is a battle going on between what he calls the K Street (business as usual) Republicans and the tea-party people. The way things are going this summer, it looks like the latter will hold more political jobs than the former, but that remains to be seen.
Obama and the Democrats have a huge problem: both sides identify them all with the political elite and big government and even if they wanted to recast their image, they could not do it in two months. This will be their biggest problem at the polls in November.
Also, a significant chunk of polling in the last few months has shown a decrease in the number of undecideds. The public is already making up their mind (which is what happened in 2004). Unfortunately for the Democrats, this is not a Presidential election, where the actions, gaffes and announced positions of one person can change fortunes in a week. Anybody who does not understand the power of that should review what happened to John McCain's polling and fund raising the week after he chose Sarah Palin.
Further, the "Summer of Recovery" is turning into a graveyard punch line. We've had a few months of bad reports now. Weekly jobless claims, retail sales, international trade and monthly employement reports have all been disappointments. And this week, the numbers on housing starts. This Friday, the 2nd quarter eco growth will be revised down to 1-1.5%. This is not necessarily the start of a double dip recession, but an open debate over that possibility is not something you want happening when you are trying to get re-elected.
Yes, the Republicans still have it in their power to screw things up for themselves. But the majority party is not going to change a thing. They all think they are on the right path. They have been waiting their whole lives for this chance, and they are simply doing what they have been arguing at cocktail parties for decades. Who are we to correct them?
That also remains to be seen. The interesting part of all this is that what may happen this Fall is that the Progressive movement in the purest state it's ever been seen here will be kicked to the curb, and the Conservative movement in the purest state ever seen here will be bench tested. What happens next will be up to the tea-party types.