Posted by
Bill Crawford on Monday, October 04, 2010 10:01:41 PM
This year has been interesting, but it will end up looking like the milquetoast 1950's by the time we all live through next Summer.
The coming Republican rout is obvious to everyone. The writing is on the wall even in the West Wing, where some prominent players are moving on to other things and Obama is already trying his level best to signal that his governing style is going to be ameliorated. It won't be in the long run, because neither Obama nor all the "Rules For Radicals" hacks that surround him are about to compromise on the transformation they are all convinced they were born to bring about.
My own take right now is the GOP taking at least 45 House seats, and nine Senate seats. These are conservative estimates, based on present rolling poll averages. This will change as November approaches, and not in any way to Obama's liking.
Which all means that in one month, the most purely progressive government this country has ever seen will be cast aside, in favor of the most purely conservative government this country has ever seen.
The lame duck period will produce nothing. The overwhelming support of independents on Election Day for the newcomers will give political support to using whatever parliamentary procedure that can be conjured up to make Pelosi and Reid's last power days a working vacation. The ones to watch will be the White House and their penchant for Executive Orders when Congress can't muster votes for them.
Next year, the Republicans will take office with an agenda and a purpose, but they will be fought every step of the way. They are fighting a coalition of progressives, unions and government employees, most of whom have salaries and pensions on the line. They will be out for blood, and they will have the votes to block everything, especially in the Senate.
However, the Republicans all know they were sent there to reform the government from top to bottom. The people that sent them there don't give a rat's patootie which issue has a third rail history. The new majority will know that if they DON'T address these things, they will be thrown out on their butts in two years. They will not have a choice.
So, the immovable object will meet the unstoppable force. The Republicans may well run into a wall on most of this. In that case, 2012 will become a call for Tea Party reinforcements.
Many people in the media are musing about all this, but are making the mistake of using the past as prologue. 2008 and the housing bust was a game changer. George Bush and Karl Rove came into office as graduates of the 'I saw what they did to us when we shut down the government' school, and understood that many of their supporters, while not enamored of government, also did not have the retirement programs and pensions of the public sector, and maybe didn't mind government lurking about as a silent partner, in case they outlived their 401K's. The stock market roller coaster, the housing bust and the explosion of government spending turned a lot of those people, who now think that Washington D.C. has to be blown up and rebuilt.
The Republicans will try. They will have no choice. If they try to compromise, they'll be surrounded by pitchforks and open torches. 2011 will be a wild and crazy time to be alive. Enjoy the show.