Posted by
Bill Crawford on Friday, October 29, 2010 8:47:29 PM
We've been through all the things that brought us here. Just a recap of the biggies, though, to frame the picture.
This election is not a referendum on Republicans, they have been blessed bystanders for the most part. Oddly enough, it isn't really a referendum on the Democrat Party, even though it should be. It is a referendum on Obama, and his "hope and change".
It is about, more than anything else, the spiraling deficit spending. It is about unemployment doubling and staying there for two years, while the party in power dickered the whole time over a huge health care bill. The bill itself wasn't that unpopular, but engendered all sorts of concerns that were not dealt with in any constructive way. Most of these concerns were voiced first by Seniors, who are now voting, as reliably as always- this time for somebody else.
The polling numbers started crashing for Democrats- that is to say, many of the independents that got Obama elected started leaving in droves- when the CBO started releasing numbers months after health care passed showing that the notion that it was deficit reduction was a crock.
So here we are. In a few days, the Republicans will pick up north of 60 seats in the House, and have solidified 48 in the Senate. Connecticut, New York and Delaware are gone. The three to watch are Washington, California and West Virginia. WV will look more stable by Tuesday (the numbers have been opening up all week). In all three, I think the pollsters are weighting their subgroups too heaviliy for Democrats in a year when that party is clearly on the south end of enthusiasm. The fates of Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray won't be known until polls close on the West coast and by that point, the fate of the Senate will be the only remaining horserace.
It doesn't matter, really. Even if the Republicans control the Senate Committees, they still won't have the votes to dampen the dead solid perfect sureness of the filibuster reactions to the stuff coming out of the House next year.
The horrid end of the old age saw a House that couldn't write a budget, or even get an appropriation moved to the floor. They increased discretionary spending by billions through a series of Continuing Resolutions. They declared an end to the budget battle by announcing that it was "deemed as passed". Then they left town to campaign without voting on the Bush tax cuts due to expire on New Year's Day. That's right, folks: as of right now, nobody knows where their taxes will be in two months.
The new age will begin with a majority that clearly knows that the people that sent them there did not marry them, but took them onto the floor to see if they could dance. And if they won't dance, another batch of Tea Partiers will arrive to replace them.
The odds are against them getting anything done- whatever manages to reach the President's desk will surely be vetoed. But the unholy surprise will be that the only sector of the electorate that condemns what they try are the 30% who now regard "Tea Party" as an insult.
If the Republicans give it a shot, 2012 will be a call for reinforcements to finish the job. If they don't, the Republicans will rapidly go the way of the Whigs and there will be a movement for a third party nomination for President.
There will be celebrations Tuesday night, but no touchdown dances like 1994. The majority is only the first step. For the Democrats, Paul Krugman is absolutely right to quote Geena Davis in "The Fly": "Be very afraid".
To that I can only say, you all earned this. You can't be that cynically arrogant and then not deliver. Not in a democracy.