Posted by
Bill Crawford on Friday, December 31, 2010 10:38:50 AM
There are many topics that I will expound on in the new year. The coming challenges to the Republican Party, for one. The Presidential campaign, if recent history holds, will begin soon and there is a lot happening there, although most of it is under the public radar at this point. On the Democrat side, the economy (for reasons why I will also delve) will improve enough to dissuade any possible Primary challenges to Obama, but unemployment will stay persistently high enough where he will not be able to turn 2012 into a coronation. The wild card in this one is Hillary, who at this point is the only challenger who would not be tilting at windmills. Her decision process will be a constant story later in 2011.
No, this is about the end of 2010, a year that the left is already trying to mentally block. I told you the lame duck Congress would be a circus, and they delivered on that big time. For starters, after a year of operating without a budget of any kind, they tried to shovel through a $1 trillion omnibus package that would set spending priorities for the first year of the new Republican Congress. The story was not that that vote went down in flames, it is that an experienced Legislator will not put something up for a vote until they know it will pass. This was a clear hail mary effort- toss it up and hope for the best.
In the transition follwing the 2008 election, the direction of Obama was a great mystery. Nobody had any idea where the hell he was going to go, and he was doing a good job of not telegraphing anything. I guessed that he would do most of what he did, based on the people that surrounded him, although a strong President always has the power to go exactly where he wants regardless.
Well, there is no guessing now. Obama did his level best to pose himself post-election day as some sort of bridge builder. I don't think he realized how painting the Republicans as "hostage takers" in the same press confab undermined that. The point is, his administration has actions to provide an accurate picture.
The EPA is very busy right now, setting up regs to monitor and tax hydrocarbon emissions, despite the utter failure for a Democrat Congress to pass any such thing in 2009.
The Medicare proposals regarding structured end of life planning were resurrected as Executive fiat, despite being pulled from the Obama health plan because of the outcry. They complained that it all being summarized as "death panels" (based on the British "life efficacy" committees), but saw that it was a political liability. The legislation posed such things every five years, and the new regs are more ambitious, going for annual consults. The supporters of this have been careful to tell people within the party not to brag on this change publicly- they know that they will not withstand another backlash.
So there it is: there will be no Clintonian triangulation coming. If Obama does not have the horses in Congress, it's still pedal to the metal, in whatever way is open to him. It appears that he would rather affect his "change" wholesale than be re-elected.
The new year can always change this. Power is a hard thing to walk away from, unless you are a Bush or a Reagan. Seeing it slip from your fingers has changed behaviors in stronger men than Barrack. It will be interesting to watch.