Posted by
Bill Crawford on Monday, March 14, 2011 9:23:54 PM
You know, I have a backlog of squib notes for at least three more entires here, and it seems that new things creep in to usurp all our attention. Not subtle little things, either. Japan was a doozy on a number of levels.
The nuclear issue- not the longest term subject from today's events, but the most attention grabbing. Just as environmentalists used the Exxon Valdez and the Gulf oil spill to hold back domestic oil production, there will be more that try and use this as a brake on nuclear plant licensing. Those who are concerned are not being in the least unreasonable. There was a standup comic (Paul Reiser, I think) who was explaining the difference between "oops" and f**king oops"- using as the latter's example "building a nuclear plant on a fault line".
On this one, Japan had little choice. The whole country straddles the line between the Asian and North American tectonic plates, and their domestic oil supply is... bupkus. That is why their war against us 70 years ago was not inevitable from Pearl Harbor, but from when we cut off their oil from us a few years earlier. But Japan's building codes are some of the best on the planet, and the fact that their containment vessels are still holding after a 9.0 Richter is testament to that.
However, the lack of power to the cooling systems is causing all sorts of havoc there. The fact that they are introducing seawater into the containment systems means that they are dealing with at least partial meltdowns- you don't want to bring that into play unless you have to. Just for starters, it is corrosive as hell to an engineering structure that is geared for near absolute precision.
The Kobe quake in '95 was not near as strong, but that epicenter was inland and it created more economic trouble. Aside from the coastal towns that were devastated by this one's tsunami, the bulk of the country will get back in gear at the same speed that their power grid does. In the meantime, Japan is populated by some of the most responsible and cooperative citizens you would ever want in a disaster. You will see patience, voluntary sacrifice and a palpable absence of looting and crime that should be an example to the world.
The China factor is the long term question. China could well take advantage of all this and step on it's neighbor in their chase for economic conquest. From a trade standpoint, this may be inevitable. The glimmer of hope is that on some levels, Japan's need and China's ability to help may foster a new alliance, however soft it may seem on questions like North Korea.
The recovery from the great 1923 quake was a major factor in Japan becoming a militaristic power. They have been in a zero growth doldrum since their great government-business "partnership" went belly up in the early '90's, and this may spur something new out of them. The problem is, one never knows what that may lead to.
My reality is, I fear a new military resurgence from Japan much more than anything China may be capable of. China has too many sparse regions to control, and a much less homegeneous population. We must help Japan with everything we can muster, but we must also keep a poker player's eye on them afterward.