Posted by
Bill Crawford on Sunday, March 27, 2011 3:31:14 PM
Newt Gingrich has obviously passed the point of no return here. His comments and responses have gone way past the ambiguous. Newt is going to declare his candidacy in less than a month. The real story is why nobody has at this point, when in 2007, there were already a half dozen declared candidates.
At any rate, Newt will not get it done, as I prognosticated here a short while ago ("Newt Is Not Happening" 1/23/11). And that is because his niche in the conservative world is as an idea man. That is what got him into the role as House Speaker in 1995. In 2010, the Tea Party had grown very tired of their simple ideas being ignored by officeholders that found bigger fish to fry in Washington. They took over the role of idea makers last year, and elected candidates sworn to serve those ideas, or be tossed aside two years hence by others who would so swear.
That is a large part of why the Tea Party slate did better in House elections than the Senate. A Senator is more of an executive position than Congressman. A Congressman's first job is to vote on things.
The bottom line is, the Presidency is about as executive a position as politics provides. Obama's executive weaknesses will only emphasize that more in 2012. If the ideas are being provided by the grass roots, who needs an idea man for President? Newt's niche is already occupied. Who needs him?
The Republican nominee will be the one that best shows commitment with the conservative agenda and the executive acumen to show that said agenda will not be spawned into the wind on their watch. What does Gingrich have to show that he can avoid the latter?
For similar reasons, you can write off any ambitions Michelle Bachmann brings up. Donald Trump? Commitment to what?
Sarah Palin? She has all the answers for some people, and provides so much ammunition for others. She still has a future, but she still has to learn that sometimes you really should ignore your critics, and not wallow in the mud with them. Not this year.
The next nominee will likely be a Governor. There are a few of them fighting it out right now, but all of them will be struggling to prove that they have the executive acumen to further the Tea Party agenda. The spending orgy has to stop, and it won't happen until it stops in the White House.