Posted by
Bill Crawford on Saturday, May 07, 2011 11:45:17 PM
I sat through a replay of the South Carolina debate. A healthy one, lots of constructive thoughts passed out. And dominated by Ron Paul, whose stark Libertarianism always stands in bold relief to all the others trying not to be blunt.
But the short answer with Trump is...no, absolutely not. Polling only becomes realistic when Election Day approaches. Early polling is fraught with the sophistication of pollees, who know enough about the process to skew their answers to "send a message".
And what is the message with The Donald? I've gone through whatever internals of the polling that has been open for public analysis, and this is my best guess: Republicans want somebody to stand up to Obama and the White House. To speak forcefully, and politely. This is why so many are chasing after the ghost of Chris Christie- that man knows how to give it back. Trump does, too. The fact that he puts his foot in his own mouth at every turn just shows that the emphasis here is on forcefully, and polite is a luxury they will do without, if need be.
In 1996, Bob Dole got his trash rifled through by the Clintonistas, and his response was, "The President is not my enemy, he is my opponent". For his graciousness, he got his butt kicked. He got a big bump in the polls when he nominated Jack Kemp, and then Jack showed up for a debate with Gore. Al led off by announcing that Mr. Kemp was not like the normal conservatives, he still had an open mind. Instead of taking Gore apart for insulting his supporters, Jack simply said "thank you", and that election was over.
In the early primaries, deference to a President who doesn't shut up and doesn't even bother delegating the partisan diatribes to his underlings will be interpreted by the conservative base as a form of surrender.
There is a culture war on, and it is just starting to peak. It is taking form in the budget debates and it is what drove the health care town meetings into Barnum & Bailey's sideshows.
And for all their ideas and acumen, Pawlenty, Daniels, Paul and even the absent Mitt Romney seem to be afraid to bark. They think it would be un-Presidential. Well, yes, if you take it to the Trump level, it is. But that doesn't mean one should not be a tad more strident.
The Trump polling is simply the base looking for that strident note, and Trump is the only one out there giving that in earnest. It is a message to the candidates. Let's see who gets it.