Posted by
Bill Crawford on Friday, May 27, 2011 11:41:36 PM
The conventional wisdom is that this is happening because of the people that have begged out, and the implosion of Newt Gingrich. Speaking as someone who has the luxury of seeing things from the ground, this is hokum.
Mike Huckabee demurred very publicly, on his own Fox television show. He intimated that he had a lot of support and the ability to catch up in money and organization. The latter was delusion, although I have no doubt that is was a personal decision.
I still haven't caught up with why Mitch Daniels bowed out, but with him went the hope of the non-Tea Party wing of the party- the ones that Rasmussen calls the "K Street wing". They are the ones that, not really understanding what caused 2010, still think only a moderate can win a national election.
There are two big names that sense a vacuum and are trying to get an idea of what their chances are. Governor Rick Perry of Texas has an idea of what is happenng on the ground, and may actually make something of this. Rudy Giuliani has no clue, and will get nowhere.
Which brings us to Sarah Palin. Sarah knows exactly what is needed to win the nomination, which is hers for the asking. I know she is making a lot of noise with her bus tour this weekend, because many in the media are updating their hypertension prescriptions.
I think Palin also knows what kind of baggage she would bring to a national election. I think she is trying to get somebody, anybody in the running, even the hapless Mitt Romney, to start fighting for the nomination like the grass roots would like to see. They want to see somebody take it to the White House and get them on the defensive. They want somebody who goes on offense like Chris Christie does. That is Sarah's bread and butter, but I think she is trying to drive a direction here.
Follow her speeches this weekend. The more generic and idea driven they are, the more likely tha my thesis has something to it.