Posted by
Bill Crawford on Saturday, August 20, 2011 9:36:29 PM
And the game is, the Republican primary voters refuse to make a choice. The polls keep fluctuating, the candidates are trying to organize and raise money, and nobody seems to be getting a true foothold. By this point in 2007, there were but a few serious players left on both sides- in a wide open election with no incumbent.
And what are they looking for? It seems like the voters are all turning over the pols on their political grills in search for Bill Buckley, Jr's "electable conservative". The Tea Party is by far the largest and most organized grassrots coalition in the GOP, and they are happy to hold off making a decision while they watch the players get in (or out), and grunge through a few more debates.
This is what Sarah Palin means when she says that the long winnowing process is a healthy thing for the party. She is the kingmaker-in-waiting, the person with veto power over the entire field. Oddly enough, many are looking at her and musing that she is trying to game the system for her own nomination, but she has set herself up as beholden to nobody. It is the cynicism of politics that few want to apply the First Principles of clarity to her and take her at her word.
Absent the always possible bolt of fatal lightning, there are only three candidates I see with a chance.
Governor Perry is now the true front runner. He is an Executive in one of the largest and economically healthiest states in the union, looking for an Executive position of a country that is getting unhappier with the economy every week. His support team, once lent to Gingrich and back home to roost, is top of the line and his fundraising skills are top notch- which has been one of Romney's claims to his own front runner status. The grassroots waiting game on him is to see if some time on the Presidential trail can smooth out his shoot from the lip style that works much better in Texas than it does elsewhere.
Governor Romney still is the most organized and best funded candidate out there, but is still uncomfortable breaking out of the play-it-safe speaking style that is not winning over the Tea Party. He is still the candidate that the GOP D.C. establishment is most familiar with, and he is hoping that Perry will founder in an attrition race.
Congressman Bachmann's progress will be impeded in the long run by any lengthy success on Perry's part. I think the election of a non-executive in 2008 was a fluke.
Another factor is the renewal of the internecine war between the Tea Party and the GOP establishment. Karl Rove is looking to boost somebody, anybody who can beat Perry. Jeb Bush and John Boehner are presently trying to convince Paul Ryan to run. Ryan is clearly a Tea Party favorite, but they think he is less of a bomb thrower and more amenable to their needs.
The two outsiders still crunching their chances and ponering a run are Governor Christie and the ubiquitous Palin.
But nobody seems to be in an all fired hurry. It really is fascinating to watch.