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Name: Bill Crawford
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My Political Future

On a more personal note, a cadre of people in my home town in North Carolina are in the process of talking me into running for Mayor this year.
 
The incumbent is a Democrat. He has been re-elected, and the last time was my first year there. I voted for him. He's a nice guy, and I think he means well.
 
It's just that I think he has shown his priorities since to be quite far from what I regard as common sense. His willingness to spend tax money in these hard times is too much for me. When I got to know him as an office holder, it added a picture that wasn't as nice as him personally.
 
None of this is a given. I have no money to add to this process, and the likelihood of me being the only Republican challenger is slim. I will not allow the incumbent to win yet again by having two opponents split the opposition vote.
 
I will follow a few conservative principles, though. The first of them being, I will not chase after public office to find a job. I do it to hold true to the ideas I believe in.
 
I am a conservative, and a federalist, so it follows that government should be a last resort, and state and local government should be tried long before national policy has to set in. Because it is a local government office, there are a more than enough issues for a conservative to be active in. It should only be surprising to those who don't understand this consistency for me to be doing this.
 
The local issues here are simple. We are in hard times, and taxes should not be raised unless there is a damned good reason. There are things out there that should be handled in the town in question. The school system should not be facing the cutbacks that they are. The police should get what they need. Growth should be managed in a transparent way for all the citizens. Drinking water should not be an issue that gets managed month by month. The character of the town should not be changed, as it is something many people obviously like.
 
How difficult is that?
 
The filing period starts in July. I'll know within a month if I am running. If I do, I do not do it so I can lose and gain party stature. I am not a professional candidate.
 
Timing is everything in politics, though. If I do this, it will be a sacrifice for me and my family. They seem to be supportive to this point, but we'll see what happens.
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Right Wing Hatred

After the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, Bill Clinton did a wonderful job using the right wing origin of the plot to engender a recovery from the Republican takeover of Congress and "the age of big government is over".
 
He made a terse statement about the right wing being responsible for the bombing, and then immediately back tracked to the more specific target of right wing "short wave operators". But the original meaning went out there, and re-energized his base for his upcoming re-election campaign.
 
Now we have a nut job who killed an abortion doctor- who hopefully will fry for his act. And a neo-Nazi who went gonzo in a Holocaust Museum in D.C., who thankfully got the death penalty applied by a couple of security guards on site.
 
I've listened for twenty years about things like Reagan's Alzheimers being ten years too late, hoping Clarence Thomas eats enough cholesterol to die soon, how Cheney should take his hunting skills into the Oval Office with Bush and on and on. Anybody who wades into MoveOn, DailyKos or the Huffington Post should be prepared for yards of this stuff.
 
So now, Fox News is responsible for the death of Dr. Tiller, because Bill O'Reilly has the temerity to pose the anti- abortion argument premises without disguise. That is because it's viewers, unlike the editorial writers at the NY Times, are just too darned stupid to make any moral difference between "abortion is murder" and "killing an abortion doctor is murder".
 
This cheesy culture war tactic is not designed to proselytize. There is no sense in winning over converts to an argument by impuging the intelligence of those who disagree with you. This is the by product of people posing themselves as moral absolutists. They are not posing the premises of an argument for your contemplation- they are posing the argument as already over and those who disagree with them as unhinged- in this case, using a few people who ARE unhinged and making the ipso facto connection to everyone else.
 
I propose to these people that they join the movement on the coasts of this great land to block out Fox News from their cable menu (like it is some sort of pornography that their children shouldn't suffer) and spare themselves the torture of exposure to people like me.
 
You know, people who continue to pose argument as competing premises, and refuse to swim in the great swamp of intolerance that you will find in cities like New York and San Francisco.
 
So, if people like me refuse to drop issues like whether or not Obama is a natural citizen, it may be because he has not addressed the issue, and not that the question has been answered and I am, by definition, a nut job. The answers that have been given are circumstantial and not definitive. I don't think it is worth doing anything about at this point, save continuing to wait for a better explanation.
 
I refuse to accept the terms of argument handed to me. I will not cow to the moral pressure of the likes of Anthony Herbert and Frank Rich, no matter how absolutely they hand it to me. Why would dissent be "patriotic" under Bush and somehow so much more unseemly now?
 
 
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Cheney "Almost Wants An Attack"

Hey Leon Panetta: I thought you were the CIA Director. You are not the CIA Political Liason Officer.
 
Do you honestly think that Cheney, after all his years in public service, many dealing directy with military or securiy issues, is now harboring any sort of prayer for political success at the expense of innocent American lives?
 
What purpose on God's green earth can statements like that possibly serve? Is there some part of you that thinks there is a chance that this will intimidate the former VP into keeping quiet?
 
Go back to Langley and get back to work. Obama dropped you into a hole outside of the beltway press corps feeding areas. Do your damned job and shut up until it is all over and it is memoir time.
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Palin vs. Letterman

Last year I gave Sarah Palin some unsolicited advice- to stop diving in to the commentary toilets so many people were swimming in, doing their level best to prove to the world that she was lacking the intelligence, perspective and sense for national office.
 
Well, I was wrong. As cheesy as the process is to swim in after these people and wring their necks, one at a time, she saw what happened to Bush and will suffer the same fate unless she covers her fishing boots with sewage.
 
She didn't have the luxury of building her reputation on her terms. She was dropped in to a political landing zone last year where she was on every television all at once, with a minimum of prep time. It didn't help at all that the news brokers, especially Katie Couric, approached her with open hostility, on a mission to prove to the world once and for all that she was as stupid as she was provincial.
 
You live and you learn. I never presume to know everything, even though it sure sounds like it when I talk.
 
So if a late night talk show host decides to call you "slutty", and renders punch lines about your daughter being the same way, I guess you have no choice but to come out with both barrels. Hell, Harry Truman did when his fully grown daughter was chopped up as a singer by an operatic reviewer. He made public mention of kicking the guy in the junk, which was not mainstream commentary of any kind in the 1940's.
 
I honestly don't know if she can recover from this to be a viable national political figure in 2012. Newt Gingrich has been out of office for a decade and he still has baggage problems from this process. But I do know now that this will be her only chance. So if she wants to put on some cami's and take potshots at Letterman from a helicopter, I'll be happy to contribute some ammo.
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North Korea: Double Secret Probation!

Obama is certainly a creature of habit. Like the Clinton White House, he stays verbally engaged. He won't let others write his history a la George W.
 
And so every time Kim Il Jung does something even more stupid, Obama must respond, as if to prove that he is on top of things in foriegn policy. When they launch another multi-stage missile or threaten another nuke deployment, what can he possibly add? The U.N. Security Council has already blowharded a really, really strict behavior condemnation that implores them to......do whatever the heck they want, I guess.
 
And unless Obama is prepared to use our military to step any of that up a notch, he should shut the hell up. Otherwise, he should just post a wall note on his Facebook account, stating flatly that there is nothing that he can do.
 
I lamented Bush's silence in the latter part of his second term. He didn't seem to see the need to correct the record that was being written for him in the daily papers and on so many bumper stickers. The bumper stickers are still out there- he was a war monger, and as stupid and disengaged as his conservative supporters were. The repetition of it all stuck with so many swing voters who ended up voting for Obama last year.
 
So we jump back to the other extreme: somebody who doesn't know how to shut up, even when it is to his (diplomatic) advantage. I think Bill Clinton grew up with it, knowing that if he said anything damaging, he could simply keep talking until it went away, was forgotten or actually corrected. I'm still trying to figure out what runs Obama. He, too, may be so used to talking about whatever he wants and being the smartest guy in the room that he is still getting used to what an incredible fish bowl his job is. Every time you talk, a hundred historians and a million bloggers are fact checking you in real time.
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The Big Cairo Speech

This was all part of the great plan. This was the "change we needed". We all wanted a stand up guy to walk into the center of the Muslim arena and tell them how sorry we all were for what we have done to them. Is that about right?
 
Mistakes? We've made plenty. But you are talking to Muslims? So was Bush. Bush took great pains to tell the world his problem wasn't with the Muslim population, but a small faction of fanatics who "hijacked a peaceful religion" for terrorist purposes.
 
OK, we'll get past that. What about the Muslims we helped in Bosnia? Iraq? Somalia? Indonesia after the great tsunami? He forgot to mention any of that? Oh, I forgot: history started when Obama was elected President- right, Michelle?
 
In 2000, Bill Clinton was making his last chase for foriegn policy legacy by getting Isreal to hand Yassir Arafat and his PLO the best deal they would ever see, and Arafat walked out of Camp David in a snit. A few weeks later, he started the great infitada, and it was made clear to the world that the PLO didn't want peace.
 
Maybe that is the greater good that Obama can bring us. Maybe he is the modern Neville Chamberlain using his silver tongue to bring us 'peace in our time', so he could get dumped on and make it all too obvious that the peace here may well be one that can only be found on the other side of war.
 
So, listen up, Muslims: this is the best you will get. Turn inward now, close down the Wahabbi schools and shut these people up, or there will be more hell coming down the road. You haven't seen America unleashed yet.
 
And you don't want to. If you make us clean out the Muslim parade ground, there will be a ton of carnage when it happens. We can live with you there. We'll find a way to even not want your stupid oil. If you insist on a world where we cannot exist for you to live a holy life, your life won't be worth much.
 
This is not your last warning. But we are a humane people, and you will get a last warning. Sooner than you think. You have no idea what is coming. I've read my history, and I do. It won't be pretty.
 
I know you all have families. When it comes down to it, you want about the same thing for your children that I want for mine. Is this all really necessary? Or, in the words of Cromwell, "I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible that you are mistaken".
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Normandy Plus 65

The veterans of the last World War are fewer each year.
 
The world is overdue for a similar housecleaning. Our civilization was in a dark and crazy place in 1940, at the end of a long world wide Depression and dictatorships taking over large parts of Europe, Africa and Asia. By the time the Japanese Emporer left the deck of the USS Missouri in September, 1945, the old Colonial order was in smoking ruins and tens of millions of dead bodies lay among it.
 
The egocentric Baby Boomers have been smart enough to take pains to pay tribute to the generation that did the grunt work for all that. They were in their twenties when the smoke cleared, and they took over the world soon after.
 
They are all out of power now, without influence politically, economically and socially. Their Boomer children pull all the strings. This Boomer has already started to show his children how, without them, we might all be speaking German today.
 
One of the recognitions of this attrition in recent years was that at the annual Normandy reunions, the first rows of chairs were left open for the veterans and their families, to ease the path for the ever increasing number of wheelchairs, oxygen tanks and slower moving uniforms that were attending.
 
Not this year. The first seats were left for the Obama retinue, with their Obama for President hats and pins. For somebody who seems to know all the right moves, this guy sure puts up some bricks on the open court.
 
So, here I am, an American, apologizing to the world for American arrogance. I am so sorry that you all have to put up with what we elected last year. Some of us are doing our best to make amends. We'll talk in 2012.
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Obama: Are You Stupid, Or Are We?

Quick note here: after spending a week abroad apologizing for American arrogance, our President was taking press questions in Germany. He was asked about being invited to dinner with French President Sarkozy and wives, and turning them down.
 
Barrack laughed all of this off. "Don't read anything into it", he said. His itinerary was loaded up, and it was a declination based purely on scheduling issues.
 
Then, on his last day in France, he and Michelle visited a private restaurant in Paris for a cozy dinner. While it is refreshing to see him keep his marriage batteries charged, he didn't think there would be a line of paparazzi outside the window to tell the world that he told the Sarkozy's to take their invitation and stick it where there is no sunlight?
 
This is the man who wanted to take the world by storm with a surge of diplomacy? What purpose does a snub like that serve? Is there anybody on his staff who will tell him he is acting retarded again?
 
Then again, if there was, the Vice President would be walking around with a sock in his mouth. So, I guess not.
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Whassup With Afghanistan?

I've been trying to work this one out for a few weeks now. Afghanistan was supposed to be the "good" war, Iraq the "bad" war.  Kabul was supposed to be the place where we went back to the holy Colin Powell Doctrine from the Gulf War- you know, clear mission, clear exit strategy, no troops without the proper support, etc.

So here we are, having given anybody who wants to know a clear date of our withdrawal in Iraq, and Obama is alienating his own base to gird up the new primary theater next door. For what?

To build a democracy in the Middle East? Hardly, not even Bush's neo-coms were trying that. To fight Al Quaeda? Everybody is telling me they are trying to take over Pakistan (and the nuclear arsenal there). To fight the Taliban? Which one? The Afghan Taliban? The Pakistani Taliban still clearly in country? The Taliban doing opium and cocaine trafficking with the local warlords? Or do we choose one from column A and one from column B?

What the hell are we doing there, Mr. President? I am not your base, okay? I am not uncomfortable with the concept of the projection of military power. Ratchet up a teleprompter and tell me what is going on.

Bush was not a master at communicating this stuff publicly, but it didn't take much to read between the lines and figure out what the plan was. I used to defend him all the time, and was able each time to present what he was trying to do, even when it wasn't working well.

If I were trying to argue for Obama today, I wouldn't have a idea where to start. Can anybody clue me in? Tell me what I am missing? Educate me.

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The Housing Bust Is Here For A While

In the past, I have gone on here at length about how the housing market is not as bad as it is made out to be, in part because the foreclosed properties all have a hard value that can be translated into money for somebody down the road.
 
I also said that the biggest problem was that neither political party had the will to take the rest of the people in homes that they can't pay for and put them out. Everybody is waiting for the mortgage holders to do this dirty work, and they want little of it, either.
 
Well, folks, I was wrong. There is a bigger problem. We live in a country where large parts of the homeowning community do not want to live among renters, and most of the empty or soon to be empty houses are in places where the onwers around them will not tolerate a neighbor with three families and seven cars on one lot. There are a ton of zoning rules and Homeowner Association codicils that expressly forbid this.
 
There is a movement extant in many gated communities to get these empty houses razed to the ground, even if they have to collaborate to fund this process.
 
This means that there are houses out there that somebody has put money up to build that are not going to return on the investement soon, or maybe never. THAT is something that may well take years to recover from, and it certainly means that the housing construction industry is in a hell it could never have imagined in the early go-go years of the new millenium.
 
And until that problem is solved, the housing price recovery will be slow in coming.
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Inflation Not In Our Future

Here is something Paul Krugman has right: inflation is not upon us, and may not be for a while. So, while the alleged piles of printed money the Fed Reserve is holding to bail out the banking system are waiting to turn us into a hyper inflation hole that would make the late 1970's look like heaven, it ain't happening right now.
 
Why is that? The biggest reason is that the financial system here is in such fear (rightfully so) that all this money, if spent, would create a classic inflationary cycle. So, oddly enough, the guarantees serve to dampen the economy that Obama is trying to inject life into. Until we truly do turn into Europe, the notion in America is still that the economy is driven first by the private sector. The private sector turned the economy in the 1940's, working for the war effort. The private sector took off like a rocket when the government worked to get out of it's way after the JFK and Reagan tax cuts.
 
Inflation requires the printed money to get into people's hands through looser credit and chase after something. That is not happening right now.
 
If a government forces a tax cut without corresponding spending cuts, as it did in 1981 and 2002, you get deficit spending that may be a secondary factor to the new, freer money in the private sector. If you deficit spend just by raising spending, as we are trying to do now, the new money enters te economy only through means of governments choice- not the private investor. This is how Europe works now- the fastest and most consistent growth is in the government itself.
 
So, look at the European record after WWII, and see what the Obama future is. Decades of economic sludge, constant double digit unemployment, and college grads holding public sector jobs as employment of choice.
 
Is that what we want?
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I Own Part Of GM!

And the stock issues of this once great company are in the same toilet as Citigroup: the broker commission fee is worth more than the share price. A good time to buy, if you think something may come of it.
 
For a President who declares so often that he doesn't want to be running companies, he seems to act otherwise.
 
The smarter people at Treasury, if they play their cards right, will do to GM what they are trying to do with Citigroup: gradually sell off pieces until there is nothing left. The viable parts first (the Hummer division has already been bought off), and then gradually everything, in a veritable fire sale at the end.
 
And then GM will eventually go the way of Hudson and Studebaker, stalwarts in their day, but museum articles and memories now.
 
Nothing is too big to fail in a working capital market. Unfortunately, GM may be big enough to live long enough to micromanage a large part of the American car market into the ground. This administration will try and use our majority ownership to retool it as a greener manufacturer, pushing smaller, alternative powered cars on a market that may not be willing to purchase them at face value.
 
And because we all have deeper pockets than a smaller pool of bond holders and investors, if the technology simply isn't there yet (and it isn't), they will bore in full steam ahead anyway. They will subsidize purchases like they subsidize Amtrak, using my money to keep a venture afloat that would sink like a stone otherwise.
 
But because they are committed to the future of green tech (that is to say, it is a good cause), they will regard throwing tax money into this hole as a good investment.
 
To paraphrase Woody Allen, if you can't do, teach. And if nobody is willing to invest in you teaching, get a government job and mandate the investment. Economically speaking, we have a government filled with gym teachers trying to show us how to make the market work. This has to stop, before we turn into France.
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America The Undertaxed

Nobel Prize Economist Paul Krugman is having at it again this week in the New York Times, the Grey Lady of the Night on 43rd Street.
 
He poses California the same way I do, a history of being some sort of bellwether that survives even today. I mean, there are many states that are losing population and are taxing those who remain to their limits and beyond. California is just better at it than anybody else.
 
He stresses that California has it's problems, but they could be solved in large part by getting past the limitations of the onerous Proposition 13 and passing a series of "manageable" tax increases. At least they would be manageable if they were passed out over the years, so all of the tax payer frogs could boil in peace because the taxes went to the stratosphere gradually, so they wouldn't notice.
 
Nothing is mentioned about the interesting priorities established from the spending choices in the Sacramento Legislature. Nada. Zilch. So for starters, health care and college tuition for illegal immigrants is, ipso facto, hunky dory.
 
But wait, it gets worse. Mr. Laureate Krugman holds repsponsible for all this sorry state of affairs the evil Rush Limbaugh Republicans, who berely have the numbers to maintain a veto power over new taxes, a la Prop 13, which requires a supermajority. Which drives home his point doubly: the problem is not the spending. We just aren't paying our fair share of taxes. Paul is careful to point out that we still don't pay out what they do in Europe.
 
So that is our goal in life? To tax and spend like they do In Europe?
 
But it's nice that we get past the swing voter driven generalities and get down to brass tacks what the Community Organizer's agenda is.
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Threatening L'il Kim

The megalomanaical midget has obviously decided to ratchet it up to really, really irresponsible. So irresponsible that even China and Russia have to yammer their way through competing Security Council statements.
 
Obama is in a hard place with this, because recent history has shown that nothing really deters these morons. China has more influence than anybody with them, and I doubt that even they could rein them in at this point.
 
Lesson number thirty seven in world diplomacy, Mr. Community Organizer: if you aren't prepared to do a military strike and you don't have anything else in your quiver, shut the hell up. If you and your Sec State trot out to a lectern and start with a series of "you better not" statements, what purpose does it serve than to show the rest of the planet how you have nothing in your hand except....well, you know the rest of that saying, right?
 
That is what got Europe into so much s**t over Bosnia in the mid- nineties. Time after time, they would pose moralities to them over their genocidal antics, and were obviously not prepared to act on any of them until we showed up a few years later. When the despots laugh at you, the people under them suffer more. Why? Because the despots know the tyranny puts them in a stronger position, and maybe they even enjoy it.
 
There is a long line of irresponsible and naive leaders of democracy leaders who make the world a shakier place every time they open their mouths. Appeasers. The ignorant and naive. Hillary was supposed to be the Democrat who was dipped in realpolitick during her East Wing stint in the '90's- what happened to that?
 
We elected the most inexperienced President in our history. He is of a movement that either has little knowledge of or much trust for the projection of military power. What do you expect?
 
As with Bill Clinton after the end of the Cold War, my tut-tutting detractors spent the campaign season talking the danger down in the world, attributing the relative stability in the world around them to a natural state, rather than the end result of a previous projection of military power. Differing premises and views of cause and effect.
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The Hubble And Beyond

We just spent almost a billion dollars repairing the Hubble telescope once again. From the stand point of pure science, I can't think of a better investment. That device has been a godsend to physics research since it went into action around 1990, and it has been improved even more by the last Shuttle mission.
 
It has provided us with more information about the origins of the Universe and the nature of missing or "dark" matter than any terrestrial super collider can give us.
 
This is not a trillion dollar super collider, smashing particles together at near light speeds to imitate early Unverse conditions and try to match theory. This is real time, real world. It has done more to get us closer to Einstein's vaunted Unified Field Theory than all the humans who have tried since Albert died in 1955.
 
 This is Hubble's last gasp, the five to ten years it will grace us with, until the even more powerful James Webb telescope is launched into what essentially will be a solar orbit beyond the Moon.
 
On to other things topical. The Shuttle will soon be retired, and it can't happen fast enough. It's capacity served us well over the last twenty years, but it was based on a few misnomers. First, that a fixed wing craft that could land on a runway would make it into a utility vehichle that would run a regular schedule. Second, that there was ANY constructive notion that humans should be launched in any configuration save top of the stack, in case of problems in the boost phase (as the Challenger astronauts learned the hard way). Third, that the glue holding the heat shield tiles on should be scrapped and replaced with something more environmentally friendly, which did in another unlucky seven.
 
The upcoming Orion series is reusable and all of it, including every non-escape velocity staging device, is capable of re-entry and chute retrieval. It may just cover the gap and keep us going into orbit until the final answer is achieved before the end of the century: elevator cables running up to a platform in geosynchronous orbit.
 
The plan is to return to the moon eventually. As with Mars, the search will be on for water sources. Where there is water, there is air, drinking water and fuel. Water is the key.
 
 
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