About Me

Name: Bill Crawford
Biography
Loading...

Create Your Own Blog Find Other Townhall Blogs

Comments

Blog Roll

Public Unions Under The Microscope

The aftermath of the blizzard in New York City last week should not have been a surprise. In that town, the Transit Unions are famous for their rulebook slowdowns, this is all old hat. But the creatively recreational snow plow effort there (and the delayed garbage pickups that followed) were important. They were a shot across the bow. There's a lot more coming.
 
You see, the shift of power in Washington, D.C. means the bailout money, the stimulus grants and discretionary federal aid will be drying up now. It will not be a gradual process, folks. If your town has a grant check in hand, cash it now. This would all have happened even if Pelosi remained as House Speaker- everything has limits and everyone knows our debt is approaching 100% of our annual GDP.
 
In the crazy states, this means that the day of reckoning will be June 30th, the end of most state fiscal years. This means New York, California, Michigan, Illinois, Nevada and Connecticut will all be looking at default.
 
If any of them default, they will have to apply for restructuring. Here is the kicker: part of the process  is that everything fiscal becomes a do over. The states will be renegotiating salaries, benefits and pensions of their public employee base. This is where the behavior of the New York unions comes in: you haven't seen anything yet.
 
Public union employees are making so much more than their private sector counterparts that it is no longer under the radar. The funny thing is, the last decade has seen a surge in negotiated bennies and pensions instead of salaries- more politically palatable, easier for everybody from a tax standpoint, etc. This means that these unions are walking around thinking that they have already made sacrifices! They think that between salary concessions and layoffs, they are at some sort of equivalence in this recession with the private sector. I kid you not, this is their glorious illusion.
 
I bring this up because many of them will be called to help out in the coming state fiscal crisis, and they will not give an inch. This is stuff they were promised. They are owed!
 
Well, they screwed the pooch in a big way. Their parents did it better. They averaged 3.4 children per family. When their union wages became unsustainable at the end of the post WWII 25 year expansion (and by 1970, oh boy, were they!) they got bought out and retired early. All those children entered the workforce and fed their pensions. This generation isn't even having children at the replacement rate (2.1 per family) and they certainly aren't allowing their children to enter the workforce full time until after college (which I happen to agree with the rationality of). How the hell do they expect all this to be paid for? Do they think the whole country is going to learn to live with 50% of their income?
 
That means they are going to be asked to work longer, and if they insist on retiring, they will be asked to take a hit. The histrionics that will follow will be painful to watch. They will be one step away from a Liverpool soccer match with two bad refs.
 
Follow up: know your history, folks. Consider your alternatives here. The political right wants to renegotiate your pensions. The left has a history of wanting to option the pension funds into the public treasury. When both sides regard this money as unsustainable, who is your better friend? I think public pensions are overfunded at the same rate their owners are overpaid, but once an agreement is reached, it is still the employee's money. Try getting a concession like that from Valerie Jarrett or Dave Axelrod in the White House. Those people are dangerous.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

The Old Year Passes

There are many topics that I will expound on in the new year. The coming challenges to the Republican Party, for one. The Presidential campaign, if recent history holds, will begin soon and there is a lot happening there, although most of it is under the public radar at this point.  On the Democrat side, the economy (for reasons why I will also delve) will improve enough to dissuade any possible Primary challenges to Obama, but unemployment will stay persistently high enough where he will not be able to turn 2012 into a coronation. The wild card in this one is Hillary, who at this point is the only challenger who would not be tilting at windmills. Her decision process will be a constant story later in 2011.
 
No, this is about the end of 2010, a year that the left is already trying to mentally block. I told you the lame duck Congress would be a circus, and they delivered on that big time. For starters, after a year of operating without a budget of any kind, they tried to shovel through a $1 trillion omnibus package that would set spending priorities for the first year of the new Republican Congress. The story was not that that vote went down in flames, it is that an experienced Legislator will not put something up for a vote until they know it will pass. This was a clear hail mary effort- toss it up and hope for the best.
 
In the transition follwing the 2008 election, the direction of Obama was a great mystery. Nobody had any idea where the hell he was going to go, and he was doing a good job of not telegraphing anything. I guessed that he would do most of what he did, based on the people that surrounded him, although a strong President always has the power to go exactly where he wants regardless.
 
Well, there is no guessing now. Obama did his level best to pose himself post-election day as some sort of bridge builder. I don't think he realized how painting the Republicans as "hostage takers" in the same press confab undermined that. The point is, his administration has actions to provide an accurate picture.
 
The EPA is very busy right now, setting up regs to monitor and tax hydrocarbon emissions, despite the utter failure for a Democrat Congress to pass any such thing in 2009.
 
The Medicare proposals regarding structured end of life planning were resurrected as Executive fiat, despite being pulled from the Obama health plan because of the outcry. They complained that it all being summarized as "death panels" (based on the British "life efficacy" committees), but saw that it was a political liability. The legislation posed such things every five years, and the new regs are more ambitious, going for annual consults. The supporters of this have been careful to tell people within the party not to brag on this change publicly- they know that they will not withstand another backlash.
 
So there it is: there will be no Clintonian triangulation coming. If Obama does not have the horses in Congress, it's still pedal to the metal, in whatever way is open to him. It appears that he would rather affect his "change" wholesale than be re-elected.
 
The new year can always change this. Power is a hard thing to walk away from, unless you are a Bush or a Reagan. Seeing it slip from your fingers has changed behaviors in stronger men than Barrack. It will be interesting to watch.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

A Few Silly Questions

These are oddball things that have cropped up in conversations in the past, and I'm laying them out here because three of them keep popping up. All of them are about understanding premises before accepting them wholesale.
 
Here's the first one: in the great lame duck Congress debate over the Republican "hostage takers" holding up the works so the rich can avoid getting their tax rates hiked, many Democrats (notably the outgoing House Speaker) brought up the Keynesian notion that giving them more money "would do nothing to create jobs". Here is the silly question:: what the hell do you think rich people do with their disposable income? I'm talking about whatever income they have that isn't taxed, doesn't go for food, shelter or yacht storage and is thereby part of their investment portfolio? If they are not sending that money to a Mexican cartel to feed a humongous cocaine habit and that money ends up in the market, how exactly do you think capital formation works? Do companies leave a note under the pillow for the "expansion fairy"?
 
Here's the next one: how twisted has the definition of "tax cut" become? I'm not even talking about how the act of passing legislation to keep marginal tax rates the same will soon be labeled the "Obama tax cuts". I bring up instead his ubiquitous talking point of his "tax cut for 98% of working Americans"- the one he so dryly brought up when discussing the Tea Party people, and how they should be "grateful" for his actions. That tax cut was a jiggering of the tax withholding tables to give everybody an extra $12-$15 a week, until they reached $400- which is where Uncle Sam decided he was tapped out. This was supposed to get the Keynesian gears going, folks. All of you who were worried about the economy and your own debt, you were supposed to go shopping with this money, not pay down your bills with it.
 
No, wait, it gets sillier. When you do your taxes this year, you will be accountable for that extra net income. Your tax rates didn't change, it will come out of your refund. The silly question is, if the tax rates didn't change at all, how the hell is it a "tax cut"?
 
Now for the silliest of all: this White House has been pushing electric cars for all it is worth. In fact, your tax money is now going to R&D at GM and Chrysler, and certainly is helping to fund the rollout of the Chevy Volt.
 
Mind you, these cars come with a price. They are more expensive, they are slower, they don't have much range, and require hours at a time to recharge. This is all in the high-minded chase for a smaller carbon footprint.
 
Here is the silliest question for today: When you plug you car in to a source of electricity, how the hell does that electricity get produced?
 
 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Elizabeth Edwards, Class Act

The Senator's estranged wife came to her end last week, and managed to stay in control of things, right to the finish.
 
Instead of ostracizing her moral reprobate husband, he was at her bedside at the end, probably the best thing for their youngest children, still in grade school. He went to the funeral too, although the eulogy was sensibly left in the hands of the oldest daughter instead.
 
Eleizbeth was John's closest political advisor through the years. Her advice wasn't good enough to overcome swimming a Presidential campaign with a lead weight like John Kerry tied to them, but they were better off with her than without her. Four years later, her cancer reappeared, and it was her decision to keep John's 2008 ambitions alive, until he later killed them all by his lonesome.
 
Through all the ridiculous sideshows that went on subsequently, she maintained a quiet dignity and a control over the family. When she went on televison and answered questions about it, she would not pose as either adoring or vindictive. There is a love that goes beyond these things, she would say.
 
The end of a bout with cancer is never easy. Pain management is usually an excruciating problem, and often the only way to avert it is to get drugged to the point of zombiehood. This she would not do.
 
Others helped her with the dignity thing during the funeral. The Westboro Church people, who protest at military funerals in classic Barnum & Bailey style, were going to visit hers because of some of her political views. They were outnumbered by a bunch of people who thought this was stupid. They maintained a human wall between the Westboro people and the funeral. These included some of my conservative friends here in North Carolina, who disagreed with her and her husband as much as I did, but thought the protests to be unseemly.
 
It all ended in her focused fashion. This was less of a surprise with her, but it happens a lot. The foreknowledge of imminent death often brings a clarity in life. It distills out many of the casual interruptions that human contact is fond of bringing.
 
That is the profound lesson from Thornton Wilder's "Our Town". The girl who dies in childbirth is granted the wish to go back, and she chooses one of her birthdays, which she had fond memories of. She spends the entire day trying to wake her family and friends from the relative sleepwalk through life they are doing. The lesson is, the human body and mind are not prepared for that much intensity. The bulb that burns twice as bright burns half as long. In this life, sometimes you have to relax and coast a little. When you know the end is near, the ones that can usually ditch all that, and Ms. Edwards obviously did.
 
Rest In Peace. And here's hoping the father of your children grows up soon.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Democrat Implosion

After Obama got done lamenting both ends of the political spectrum in announcing his deal, his Congressional Caucus got together and showed some gratitude. "F**k the President", I believe was the headline.
 
Trying to understand where they are coming from is easy- once you realize that these people are diehard Keynesians. They are supplicants of the theories of aggregate demand. Government needs to prime the pump and keep spending. When the recovery starts, we can worry about the deficit. Europe is ten steps closer to hell on this than we are, they realize they need to worry about things now and are willing to suffer riots in the streets to take the first steps. After Obama spent the last couple of eco conferences trying to convince them to spend more, they stopped listening to him.
 
Well, it's not enough. We need to seize more from the dead. We need to get at least an extra 10% from the rich. Because, you see, they can afford it. You can talk about capital formation with these people until you are blue in the face, and get nowhere. That is why the timing of the deal was so significant- Obama is as willfully ignorant as the Congressional leadership on economics, but somebody convinced him that not making a deal right damned now had capital formation consequences.
 
And for this, we may well get yet another extension on unemployment benefits. While I think that 99 weeks is just insane, I have some holiday sympathy. Nobody is hiring now, and getting these people through December and the worst of winter has an urgency to it. But they want another thirteen months! They want to get them through the holidays NEXT year, too.
 
I will not lament this from a deficit reduction viewpoint. Extending unemployment is another way of guaranteeing higher unemployment. If you can't find something in your field, the temptation to hold out becomes greater. It delays making hard decisions.
 
There are aspects of it I would entertain. Creating career education stipends, in lieu of extended benfits would be one. Not being able to move because your mortgage is underwater and extending benefits to those who could show proof of that would be another. But just handing out cash for another year? When a decent part of it is an unfunded State mandate? Give me a break.
 
But I digress. There are thousands out there now, speculating on how all this is the first shot in Obama's 2012 campaign. I don't think he is that far together. I've never seen anybody turn on his base like this and survive the long run.
 
His saving grace is that there isn't a primary challenger out there who doesn't know the challenge would probably kill whoever won, in the general election. That is except for one. But she has already announced that Secretary of State is the last entry in her resume.
 
Or is it? Remember what I told you about what it takes to put down the undead Clintons. The grave needs to be checked every day.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Obama Makes A Deal

First, you would ask (especially if you are writing in Salon), why the hell would he even talk to the Republicans? That's an easy one. He had to. The House and the Senate had votes last week on the Bush tax cuts, in part to prove to their base that they still had it, and I guess in part to show the world how lame their duck really was. McConnell and Boehner are the only game open on the Hill, and they haven't even assumed the position for 2011.
 
Next, you would ask, why the rapid-fire cave in? Why couldn't Barrack at least hold their feet to the fire for a couple of weeks, and see if the rascally conservatives wilted under the heat? That answer was not as simple, but was more devastating: he had no time.
 
You see, all this stuff was set to expire in three weeks. The whole magilla- cap gains increases, marginal income rates, estate taxes, everything. There has been a few trillion dollars hiding away in the private sector because nobody knew what the feds would do with "their fair share" of it when it saw the light of day. These people must plan, and the powers that be made it crystal clear that this week was the end of the line. When the market closed on Friday, December 10th, people were going to start planning as if the kiddies in Washington would never play together, and taxes were about to skyrocket. The first step in repositioning would be a massive selloff in the stock market next week, so all this could be settled before the holidays.
 
Well, somebody must have blew this into Obama's ear and told him to saddle up and make a deal. The President made it abundantly clear that it wasn't pleasant for him. Lashing out at his party for immaturity and at the GOP for being "hostage takers" certainly did wonders for that certain 'Presidential' feel. Whoever read this riot act to him deserves to be feted at the Kennedy Center next year, and hooked up with a Presidential Freedom Medal. Thjis was so overdue, it was ridiculous.
 
He just ran out of time. The Democrats were making it obvious that they couldn't pull a floor vote together, and at least 42 Republican Senators sent him a letter stating that they weren't budging. If you were told that another week of dithering would crater the stock market, what would you do?
 
The man had no choice. Why don't you Democrats cut him a break?
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Wikki Slikki Going Down Soon

Julian Assange has been a thorn in everybody's side for a while now. But he has been allowed to skate, until this week. Now his time will soon be up.
 
Osama Bin Laden is somewhere in the mountainous nether region between Afghanistan and Pakistan- everybody knows it. He is being guarded by men who think his protection is Allah's will (so, no bribery possible) and we know that the odds are good that we would be at war with Pakistan if we tried to get him. So, he skates.
 
Mr. Assange has been acting like a Freedom of Info Act purveyor for months now, but we either need Europe's help (otherwise, no Interpol) or we have to pretend we are Mossad, which we don't have the will to do right now. On top of that, Wikkileaks agenda has largely been strictly anti- American, so the Europeans have been publicy condemning Julian, but enjoying how uncomfortable he makes us.
 
Well, that's over. The release of diplomatic cables cuts all. It was actually a relief to read some of them- while the Foriegn Service front line is as uncomfortable with the projection of power as Obama is, at least privately they maintained a healthy cynicism about the world.
 
The confidentiality of these diplomatic communications is the lifeblood of the diplo world. Much as they would love to just clam up and not talk to us anymore, they all know that a ticket off the grid with us is a one way deal, going down.
 
The world also knows that mistakes like this on our part are acts of omission. The army brat with the Lada Gaga CD's got away with it because he fell under the radar. Once we turn on that radar, not much will get past us, and everybody knows it. In other words, if the State Department tells the world we are acting on this and it ain't going to be happening again soon, they will believe us readily.
 
The last sin of Wikkileaks was to show the world what the more cynical among us already knew. For instance, that Saudi Arabia was promoting us to take out Iran, funding Al Queda and making nicey-nice with Teheran, all at once. Taking that and giving it to the NY Times is not something the Saudis will suffer well.  Every other country has a similar story. They all have a public face and a private assessment, and rarely do they coincide. Calling them out publicy is just not something they will all tolerate.
 
And so, all at once, the Europeans will get the gumption to go after Assange, and take him out. Now, it is in their interests to do so. Somebody should tell Julian to enjoy his last gasp of freedom.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

The TSA Oversteps?

There is an odd thing going on these days: the right is blanching about a federal agency doing their level best to prevent air terrorism, and the left is the most vocal support base of some practices that are some of the most public personal invasions of privacy in our history.
 
Strange bedfellows. Both sides realize they are doing a twisted dance, and nobody seems comfortable with it. I feel for the TSA front liners, they are obviously under the gun to not have any more incidents. The problem is not them, it is the Homeland Security apparatchik.
 
Some people are saying that what they are doing doesn't really work, and it is simply security "theatre", to mollify the flying public. I agree that it largely doesn't work, but even the Homeland bosses aren't that cynical.
 
They just don't think the Isreali behavioral model is correct for us. We are too large, we can't possibly train that many people with that depth. So we do the American thing, and try and tech our way out of it. The problem the TSA is running into with the public is that everybody knows their "enhanced pat downs" are as much a security screening as they are a public humiliation, designed to discourage others from opting out of the scanners. THIS is on it's face, cynical, and there will be a price to be paid for that.
 
The Isreali system is not that difficult, but it doesn't work without concrete consequences. The screeners ask everyone a series of casual questions, and read eyes and body language, which they then add to a profiling (that nasty word arises again) like origin point, baggage, destination, one way vs. round trip, etc. to give you a number from one to six. One is reserved for people that the screener vouches for personally. Two and three mean you are approved, but will get further screening. Four and five mean you are going to get a rigorous going over, and you may not be flying today. Six means your level of freedom is about to get a mjor revision.
 
The point is, in their system, if the authorities decide you are a problem, what we regard here as Fourth Amendment rights would get flushed down the toliet pronto, and that would be the hardest part to sell to the traveling public here. It works in Ben Gurion Airport because Isreal is surrounded by countries who don't want it to exist.
 
Meanwhile, we are left with the two things added since 9/11 that do work: armored cockpit doors, and passengers that realize that, if you start doing stupid things in flight, they need to bum rush you and flatten you into submission. If that implies I think the TSA methods right now are "theater", so be it. I just don't think that was the intention behind it.
 
I'm not sure if Homeland has it in them to find a better answer than what the TSA is doing right now. Their problem is, when the public starts looking at you as the villian, you will have problems with everything else you do.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Election Postmortem

I took a little vacation from this monstrosity in part because I was catching up on more important things, but also so I could get a gander on the reaction to Election Day.
 
It could be an occasion to gloat about my predictions, but that wouldn't be appropriate. This was an even easier year to predict things than 2004, as many of the various x-factors (turnout, candidates adjusting strategy, etc.) were negligible. Both sides gave it all they had. The side that understood what the Tea Party was about won. More on that in another entry.
 
Personally, it was a good year right down to grass roots. My county here in North Carolina elected a grand total of one Commisoner (out of five) for one term sine Reconstruction. This year, they swept a team of three onto the Board, creating a new pro-growth majority.
 
Also, the State House and Senate went Republican for the first time in over a century. Alas, the Governor's office here is limited to Democrats already serving sentence, and Democrats who will be serving in the future. I guess it keeps Illinois from feeling ostrasized.
 
The House posed no surprises. The GOP pickup is now at 63, with only the CD on the east end of Long Island, NY still in dispute. With the loss of many independents in the transitory Obama coalition, many parts of the center of the country reverted back to how they voted ten years ago. This election was not a Republican groundswell as much as it was a reversion to the Republican majorities post-1994. P.J. O'Rourke called it in late October, he said the election was going to be a "restraining order on the Democrats".
 
The Northeast, the Washington-Boston corridor and the West coast all maintained themselves as Democrat strongholds. There, the Tea Party polled almost as well as everywhere else, but didn't translate it into voting against their own Congressman. California and New York will only prolong their own fiscal suffering with all that.
 
The Senate was the true battleground, and the West coast phenomenon made the re-elections of Boxer and Murray academic. The two real shocks were Alaska and Nevada. Murkowski proved more resilient than predicted, and Miller could not close the deal. Angle spent her last weeks using her heaps of cash to buy air time, while Harry Reid called out his sizable ground advantage, notably the whipped up and powerful SEIU troops.
 
My first observation of the end of gunfire was the Republican establishment types who were using the fact that they did not gain a Senate majority as the responsibility of Sarah Palin. Many will be doing their level best to trivialize her that way. The Bush loyalists will be charter members of this effort. Sarah still marches to her own drummer, and my only advice to her would be to stop responding. Learn the value of "no comment".
 
When the Republicans took over the world in '94, the White House went into hiding for a few weeks. They even invited self-help guru Tony Robbins to pep them all up, sometime that December. This year, there will be none of that. The Keynesians who are running the Democrat party will not change a thing, they all think this was a communications problem. The people will ill informed of all their accomplishments, or they were not thinking with "science and facts", as Obama intoned. Never leave behind a chance to announce that you think that disagreement with you is borne of stupidity. This is sure to win back all the independents who turned on them this month.
 
The Democrats will probably play the same ju jitsu game with the budget as Clinton did in '95. Obama will punt the budget to Boehner next year, wait for them to pose the tough questions and then carp at them from the peanut gallery.
 
Meanwhile, the internecine struggle keeps on in the Republican Party. The Tea Party people will keep pushing, and if they meet resistance from the K-Street establishment, they will continue to throw them overboard until they are acknowledged as a majority. This will all likely happen before 2012. The only chance for the establishment to win would be for the '12 candidate to be a Tea Party sympathizer and then lose the election by a landslide of LBJ proportions.
 
Absent that, the two players to watch are Palin and Senator DeMint from South Carolina- Mr. Inside and Ms. Outside. They will be the twin lighting rods for next year. Obama will get some image rehab from not being in the spotlight as much.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (2) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

The Birth Pangs Of A New Movement

We've been through all the things that brought us here. Just a recap of the biggies, though, to frame the picture.
 
This election is not a referendum on Republicans, they have been blessed bystanders for the most part. Oddly enough, it isn't really a referendum on the Democrat Party, even though it should be. It is a referendum on Obama, and his "hope and change".
 
It is about, more than anything else, the spiraling deficit spending. It is about unemployment doubling and staying there for two years, while the party in power dickered the whole time over a huge health care bill. The bill itself wasn't that unpopular, but engendered all sorts of concerns that were not dealt with in any constructive way. Most of these concerns were voiced first by Seniors, who are now voting, as reliably as always- this time for somebody else.
 
The polling numbers started crashing for Democrats- that is to say, many of the independents that got Obama elected started leaving in droves- when the CBO started releasing numbers months after health care passed showing that the notion that it was deficit reduction was a crock.
 
So here we are. In a few days, the Republicans will pick up north of 60 seats in the House, and have solidified 48 in the Senate. Connecticut, New York and Delaware are gone. The three to watch are Washington, California and West Virginia. WV will look more stable by Tuesday (the numbers have been opening up all week). In all three, I think the pollsters are weighting their subgroups too heaviliy for Democrats in a year when that party is clearly on the south end of enthusiasm. The fates of Barbara Boxer and Patty Murray won't be known until polls close on the West coast and by that point, the fate of the Senate will be the only remaining horserace.
 
It doesn't matter, really. Even if the Republicans control the Senate Committees, they still won't have the votes to dampen the dead solid perfect sureness of the filibuster reactions to the stuff coming out of the House next year.
 
The horrid end of the old age saw a House that couldn't write a budget, or even get an appropriation moved to the floor. They increased discretionary spending by billions through a series of Continuing Resolutions. They declared an end to the budget battle by announcing that it was "deemed as passed". Then they left town to campaign without voting on the Bush tax cuts due to expire on New Year's Day. That's right, folks: as of right now, nobody knows where their taxes will be in two months.
 
The new age will begin with a majority that clearly knows that the people that sent them there did not marry them, but took them onto the floor to see if they could dance. And if they won't dance, another batch of Tea Partiers will arrive to replace them.
 
The odds are against them getting anything done- whatever manages to reach the President's desk will surely be vetoed. But the unholy surprise will be that the only sector of the electorate that condemns what they try are the 30% who now regard "Tea Party" as an insult.
 
If the Republicans give it a shot, 2012 will be a call for reinforcements to finish the job. If they don't, the Republicans will rapidly go the way of the Whigs and there will be a movement for a third party nomination for President.
 
There will be celebrations Tuesday night, but no touchdown dances like 1994. The majority is only the first step. For the Democrats, Paul Krugman is absolutely right to quote Geena Davis in "The Fly": "Be very afraid".
 
To that I can only say, you all earned this. You can't be that cynically arrogant and then not deliver. Not in a democracy.
 
 
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

The Ubiquitous Muslim Issue

This is another one that has .been on the radar for a while, but took a mainstream turn and bubbled up onto everybody's screen.
 
This issue is at the center of the Ground Zero mosque controversy, the set walk-off by Whoopi Goldberg and Joy Behar on "The View" a couple of weeks ago and the unceremonial firing of Juan Williams by NPR a few days ago.
 
While it would be entertaining to rehash the NPR doings (especially the press conference later), that stuff is incidental. The core issue is the interpretation of the nature of Islam and those who practice it.
 
There seems to be a worldview being bandied about by the counter culture types and their issue supporters that grudgingly admits there is a radical Muslim problem, but if you don't use the specific "radical" subset each and every time you mention Muslims, you are inciting riot.
 
Let's get real, folks. 9/11 happened almost a decade ago. After almost every Muslim owned or operated business in the country sprouted flags like crabgrass along with the rest of us, there was no backlash. There still are no vigilante posses travelling through Newark, Brooklyn and the Dearborne section of Detroit. Hell, if I had a c-note for every time George W. Bush used the phrase "hijacked a peaceful religion", I'd be retired now.
 
So, what it comes down to is that Whoopi and her allies are able to make the distinction between mainstream Muslims and terrorist Muslims. Unfortunately, the rest of us are somehow learning impaired and need these guardians to keep us from rampaging the streets on a new Christian Crusade.
 
This is just another issue in the great culture war here. And once again, one side has decided that their conclusions are the only ones possible at the end of a critical thinking session. Anybody who hasn't fallen in with that is beneath them, and must be restrained.
 
You can imagine my response to that one. We have a Muslim problem, folks. We have a problem with the too-large number of radicals among them, and we have a problem with the mainstream Muslims who either tacitly agree with the radicals or are too intimidated by them to do anything about them. We have a problem with Europe having so many Muslims among them that they are paralyzed to act. That leaves us to deal with them.
 
If I occasionally leave out the distinction adjectives, I honor the intelligence of the average American to have already taken that particular critical step. The counter culture doesn't seem to be enamored of returning that favor. Intelligence here would be defined as agreement with them, which only honors the Webster's definition of "arrogance".
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Barnum & Bailey's Lives In New York

In their prototypical Empire State fashion, the powers that be agreed to and held a Gubernatorial candidate's debate yesterday.
 
Along with the two major parties, they obviously invited anybody who gathered write-in signatures from one or two dozen family members. Many States have had hookers run for high office- rarely do they get elevated to prime time status. So I guess they figured, if a seer of the oldest profession was seeking office in the second oldest, go for the gusto, right?
 
And so they did. Which probably explains why there was a former Black Panther in a Nehru jacket there, and the head of the The Rent Is Too Damned High Party. At least the Nehru jacket was black. More than one candidate (including Paladino) were dressed in their best pool table green sport coats.
 
If Andrew Cuomo was responsible for all this somehow, he needs to shovel it over big time for a Christmas bonus to his advance men. By remembering all his lines (obviously not a Tea Party requirement) and not looking like a village idiot, Andrew walked out of there with the election in hand. You know how it is- in the land of the blind, the one-eyed jack is King.
 
My caveat to Cuomo is: what you saw around you last night is not far from what Sheldon Silver and his ilk call normal government process in Albany. Your State is due to face default or bankruptcy next June, and the new Republican Congress is not going to be tossing any life preservers. If you do the right thing then, every union in the State will be hanging you in effigy. Why the hell would you want this job?
 
Heck, they're already selling Chris Christie pinadas across the Hudson. But at least he, if he gets anywhere with this at all, will move up in the Republican world as a hero. If you do the right thing, you will be a pariah in your Party.
 
Leave town now, Andrew. Go find a place to live where critical thinking is something besides a joke or a distant memory. Someplace where you can make some money and not have to fork over half of it to the public sector, like so much vigorish.
 
Get out while you can.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

The Law Is An A**

I can think of three comedic legal fights going on right now, and hopefully the system can withstand the lunatics firing at the walls.
 
First off, there is the great mortgage foreclosure paperwork fiasco. When foreclosure wasn't yet a mainstream sport, some legal smart alecs started to make a living by asking the banks doing the dirty deed to show the original note on the deed- which, after sixty five rounds of refinancing, was probably somewhere in the basement of the Smithsonian. Eventually, this stopped working.
 
Now, with foreclosures coming up like new reality show scripts at ABC, bank officials are finding themselves with enough paperwork in their inbox to start a bonfire that can be seen from Earth orbit, and they took some short cuts. You know, signing for other bank officials, not always having a notary present, etc. The smart alecs found enough friendly Judges to enact legal challenges. The end result is, right now, quite a few foreclosures are being held up while the banks (most notably Bank of America) are getting their paperwork ducks in a row.
 
This will all die a proper death soon, because the establishment of payment/ nonpayment is more cut and dried. There is either a money trail or there isn't, and non-payment is universally considered a contract-breaker. The sooner this is cleared up, the better, because the housing market will not bottom out (and the recovery won't get started) until this is done. The worst of this will happen in 2010-11.
 
Circus #2: California's Proposition 19, the limited legalization of marijuana, is on the ballot in two weeks. The Justice department has already announced that they will not let up on any of their controlled substance ordinances if this happens. A libertarian administration would have less problem with this than a progressive one. Eric Holder knows that, if this becomes a State's rights issue and the feds lose control over the process, it could become precedent for a whole host of other issues following that trail.
 
Oddly enough, the staunchest opponents of Prop 19 are the growers in the two or thee Northern Ca. counties that would lose their price floor if the market opened up. Starnge bedfellows, indeed.
 
Finally, there is the one friendly Judge that has decided for all of us that "don't ask, don't tell" is unconstitutional and should be nullified immediately. Obama and Justice had no choice but to file and appeal that ruling, because it is an issue that has to this point, properly been one between the Congress, the White House, the military and the voters.
 
Those of you out there that are lamenting this appeal, ask yourself this: supposing that an issue came up that a conservative Judge took upon themselves to take off your table. Do you want a member of the Judiciary to hold that power? I don't.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Everything, Including The Kitchen Sink

It used to be that many voters were considered open season by both political parties until the end of October. This rule was especially firm in a non-Presidential election, where the issues were not as focused and the turnout was lighter.
 
Two things are different now. One is early voting, which means that many voters (and more of the likely ones) make up their minds almost a month earlier than that. The second one is the tiresome generational stuff I keep bringing up. I understand that I get annoying with it, but think about it: what do the American periods of 1770-1785, 1850-65, 1930-45 and the present have in comon? Different issues, but all of them with public debate turning into Mexican cockfights. One of the byproducts of such an atmosphere is that more than half the country had their minds made up on the issues, and then went in search of a candidate to fit them.
 
Like Obama in 2007. And the Tea Party this year- well, actually last year, but they were under the media radar until very late last year.
 
The point being, the results are not in, but the polling has been disastrous for the Democrats since last Spring, and have gotten worse. Whatever money they had has not moved them. The raw candidates, with all of their flaws, that came out of the Republican primary process has not moved them.
 
Everybody knows that negative politicking is a double edged sword. But everybody also knows (especially in Chicago) that, if you don't have anything else in your quiver, what is there to lose?
 
So have at it they will. The most entertaining to date is the attempt to connect "foriegn money", the evil Chamber of Commerce, "Bush people" (mainly Karl Rove) and GOP campaign donations. All rolled together by the DNC in a cute little spot, featuring a woman being mugged and a slo-mo of Chinese money being fanned onto a table.
 
And the President himself is laying it out for any crowd of college kids he can cull together for an afternoon away from classes.
 
The irony of all this is that the single largest violation of FEC rules in our history- before Obama- was the Clinton '96 campaign, where "bundling" donations became such a thing, especially with Charlie Trie and the Chinese connections (even more irony) that exemplified the practice. Bundling was a rich donor passing out cash to employees or supporters and they in turn writing out political donations to candidates under the legal limit for individuals. 1996 set a record for dry cleaner owners sending in checks at the legal max.
 
As with Obama, so much of the overt stuff happened late in the campaign that the election was long over before the FEC had anything in their hands. Obama made Clinton look small time. How?
 
His websites turned off their AVS (address verification), so you could donate under $200 as many times as you wanted to, with the same card number. Under that amount, there is no legal need for record keeping of any kind. No names, no occupations, nothing.
 
Well, Obama declined any public funding in 2008. And he raised almost a BILLION dollars, almost half of it in the last 45 days before the election. That's ten mil a day, if anybody's asking.
 
And this is the man now taking the Republicans to task for corporate donations! When questioned about it on CBS last weekend, Dave Axelrod conceded that they could not label any part of it as "illegal".
 
That's not the point, you see. It's Saul Alinsky again, and his "Rules For Radicals". If you want to sell a policy, you have to tell a story. And every story has a villain.
 
This will all get worse as November approaches. Nothing is working, and Obama is all in at the poker table.I'll think about this, the next time I get lectured for not being able to conduct civil political discourse in public.
 
It won't change anything that way, but it will feed my inner amusement.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (1) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive

Secretariat, The Motion Picture

It surprises me that this movie wasn't done already, but then again, not really.
 
Secretariat was, along with Man O' War, one of the two greatest racehorses of the twentieth century. He was Sport's Illustrated's "Athlete of the Year" in 1973. He won the first thoroughbred triple crown in 25 years, when it was starting to be believed that it would never happen again.
 
On the other hand, there was no conflict with Secretariat. For the sake of the movie, they created some with the struggle of owner Penny Chenery trying to make it in the tony, aristocrat (read: misogynistic male) world of breeders and owners. If I know Hollywood well, they probably threw in some eccentric characters and made it all a chore for them to get along.
 
What do I mean by no conflict? His story was straight forward. His genetic line was top notch, and his speed surpised no one. His expensive syndication raised few eyebrows- everybody thought he was worth it. The only loss of his career- the Woods Memorial- was taken quite in stride by his supporters. There was no panic or angst among them over that.
 
Furthermore, he really was a special animal. There was no outside motivation with him. His rider's whip was never used. He never seemed to notice anything else on the track. He just accelerated and kept moving until everybody else was gone. It was his will.
 
If I were to watch a movie about him, it would last about ten minutes, and it would simply be footage of those three races. He won going away in the Kentucky Derby, setting a course record that still stands.
 
In the Preakness, he did something that I've never seen a horse do, before or since. Every furlong had a faster time. He accelerated the entire race. That course record stands now, also. I thought he would never be able to top that performance.
 
Then came the Belmont Stakes, the last triple crown race. By post time, his odds were 1-20. A $2 bet would net you a nickel profit. Everybody knew this, they were buying them for souvenirs. Nobody cashed them in.
 
The race went off and the jockey, Ron Turcotte, explained later that being in the thick of a thoroughbred race has the sound and feel of a serious earthquake. He noticed after a mile or so that he was riding in silence, and he was so taken aback by it that he committed one of the worst training sins of a jockey: he looked back. He had to. His horse was twenty lengths ahead and still running away from the field. He thought at first that they had all stopped racing or something. Watching it on television, the cameras were not prepared to focus on such a wide gap, they stayed on the front runner and then would slowly pan out to give you the bigger picture. Secretariat set a 1.5 mile world record that nobody has come close to since.
 
He was a special horse even in retirement. He wasn't sullen, he would put on a personality show for strangers. He also did something I never have heard a horse to do: he would follow planes across the sky with his eyes.
 
Not much for a screenwriter to sink his teeth into, though. I'm betting the movie is two hours of human drama, punctuated near the end with some of the best open field running this planet has ever seen. Is it worth it for that? Probably. I can see why this story would not merit a movie without some dramatic effect. None of it on the horse's part. He was a force of nature.
Email ItEmail It | Print ItPrint It | CommentsComments (0) | TrackbacksTrackbacks (0) | Flag as offensiveFlag as Offensive