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Where is TARP II?

We're all still waiting for the details. They aren't in any hurry to give them out, either, for a few reasons.
 
First, they aren't getting any cooperation from all the mortgage holders. They want the loan guarantees, but they won't give up the information until they see a check in front of their faces.
 
Second, the bad news is that the money needed will have to cover about 7% of the home mortgage market extant, plus interest. This is an enormous amount of money, and Guethner does not have the political skill to sell it. Obama will have to. The good news is, the money is an up front guarantee only. The mortgages are all attached to hard assets- land and property- that can be sold by somebody and taken off the taxpayer lien eventually.
 
The worst part is, nobody, especially the Democrat crowd, is up to telling the people in these houses that they don't begin to have the wherewithal to renegogiate their mortgages, and must be foreclosed. Many of these people are not going to lose anything tangible in the process, being that they didn't put any money down to purchase. But a series of government officials made a living telling them they deserved a house, and don't want the grief and lost votes in reversing that. These pansies all want somebody else to carry that burden.
 
Maybe they can all hire Bush back to do the dirty work for them. It stands to reason that they will want somehow to be able to blame the Republicans for the upcoming foreclosures. It is a herculean task in a town where they run everything now.
 
So, for the time being, nothing gets done, and the stock market stays in limbo- along with all your 401-K's. Obama has nobody else to blame now. Eventually he will have to do something about these mortgages. If I were him, I would start by pelting Dodd and Frank with ripe fruit. You want to blame somebody else? Start with the people who deserve it frst.
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AIG Execs Questioned By Hypocrites

What a circus we have going on in Congress today. The elected officials are mad as hell, and they are letting the management of AIG have it with both barrels. They are also more than happy to share their populist anger with the public.
 
It's too bad they haven't done their fargin' homework. If they did, they would become aware of a few things.
 
First, if a government entity uses it's power to break a contract agreed to between two private entities, the precedent will be dangerous beyond recognition. Imagine the hell you would be going through if you retired and found that Congress was renogotiating your pension benefits- and had the power to change them at will.
 
Secondly, the bonuses were negotiated and agreed to before the bail out last year. If Guethner didn't know about them this week, he should be dumped as Treasury Sec immediately, because he was the principal negotiator of said bail out.
 
Third, the bonus structure in these companies are not strictly based on performance. Some of them are practiically guaranteed as part of the salary package. This is a byproduct of the Clinton years, when cap gains taxes were lowered and income taxes were raised.
 
Fourth, the notion of Dodd, Frank and Waters questioning these people with moral indignation sets off all my Barnum & Bailey circuit breakers. Chris and Barney should be burlap sacked and tied up in the basement until the housing market corrects a few years from now.
 
It seems to me that whatever the punishment of the AIG people, it is well and fair that they should suffer. While I still hold out hope that the concept of inviolate contract agreements stays out of the hands of the government, let this be a disincentive for all companies out there who are applying for bail money from the feds. Look at what they do to you when they own even part of your company.
 
Hey, GM and Chrysler, are you listening?
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Polls Are Down- You Haven't Heard?

Wow. What a shocker. Presidential polling drops to the low 50's, and nobody covers it. Gosh. Imagine my surprise.
 
This is the new world of American journalism: the bulk of the mainstream media became Obama acolytes last year, and they continue today. They want his policies, they think they are long overdue.
 
The First Family is feted in the circulars like the new coming of Camelot. You can tell them straight off- they often present his approach as "middle of the road", "mainstream" or "centrist"- even though it has the likes of yours truly reeling and thinking it may be a real world resurrection of Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged".
 
Here is the worst part about his polling: the large numbers of "strongly disapprove". You can hold an approval rating of 55% or so and still hold a lot of sway, but when one third of the electorate thinks you need to be stopped cold, you are going to lose a lot of swing voters in the process.
 
The polarizing numbers come from him laying all his cards on the table as quickly as he did. I think Obama had the wisdom to sense that so early in his term and with the economy in the state it is, there wasn't a better shot at getting it all done. Maybe it is the wisdom of Rahm Emmanuel, who knows?
 
Whatever. The original point being, the mainstream media flushed their credibility down the toilet last year, and now they are starting to pay for it. It is part of the reason why so many newspapers are in circulation trouble right now.
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"I Respect the Constitution"

...Unlike George W. Bush, that is. Last year, Obama was quite clear on what he thought of the nature of Presidential signing statements- basically a unholy power grab by the Executive branch.
 
He was also quite clear that, having taught Constitutional Law for ten years, he had a respect for the Constitution which would not allow him to follow that fashion.
 
That is, until the first month he took the office. Now, there doesn't seem to be any problem with it.
 
Such is the world of a moral relativist. Obama does not seem to care a whit about being consistent. If anybody questions him on this, they are not "looking at the big picture" or "the larger context".
 
Before I understood this peculiarity, the not caring about it by the left used to confuse me. After all, they know enough about logic and consistency to hammer their detractors with questions when they sense a problem. They know that consistency is important to conservatives, and they freely use it against them.
 
Those rules just don't apply to them. They are special.
 
 
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Obama The Science King

Far be it for someone as self centered and myopic as this President to simply present his reasoning for re-allowing federal funding for stem cell research. He simply has to take time out to show that those who opposed him were without any merit whatsoever.
 
This is not how it was presented in August, 2001 by his predecessor. Bush put forward an outline of either side of the debate, and presented his moral premises for making the decision he did. This is why the NY Times presumptively labelled him "the philosopher king" on the occasion.
 
No, Obama is different. Because HE has no moral problem with using dead embryos, ipso facto, there IS no moral problem. Therefore, the use of a morality premise in dealing with the question is inherently an illegitimate interruption of the science.
 
For those of you out there that, like the President, do what you can to avoid the question of where human life begins, let's skip past the "above my pay grade" excuse and try another science corollary:
 
Some of the best research done on hypothermia is the records made in the early 1940's, when German doctors started putting flight suits on Jewish prisoners, wired them up and dropped them into 37 degree water to see how they reacted before they died of exposure. Would an objection to THESE experiments be an interruption of the scientific process?
 
Political debate is just like any other debate. Some people master the thesis/ premise/ logic process, and others try to win by posing themselves as the definition of superiority. Obama would make a wonderful Emporer. He just took the wrong job title.
 
Follow up: in perusing the transcript of the announcement, it struck me recently that it was awfully odd that Obama would wax so eloquent about not letting ideology get in the way of science, and then casually announce a moral barrier in refusing to allow cloning. So it seems that it isn't morality or ideology itself that he doesn't like to see interrupt pure science- just the ones HE disagrees with.
 
So, in the same paragraph, he at once poses himself as above it all, and then stoops to what he condemns. Welcome to the world of moral relativism. You know, whatever works for you today. And the next day, if what you need makes you contradict yourself, so what?
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Obama Is Above Criticism

Or so goes the new conventional wisdom. Geez, give the guy a chance! He's only been in office for eight weeks. When this recession (you know, the one that could be a disaster we 'may never recover from') "turns around later this year, you will see that the stimulus bill worked".
 
Add to that the notion that attacking Obama is akin to attacking America, as if he were like the Japanese Emporer.
 
In their usual scattershoot fashion, they then decide to go after Rush Limbaugh, based on their summary of something he was being very careful not to say. He very clearly was saying that America would not succeed if Obama's policies carry, and he hoped Obama would fail so that America would be the better for it.
 
For this, he was pilloried. What is the surprise in this? Hillary used to tell her East Wing minions that in order to sell a policy, one had to tell a story. And every story has a villain. What I didn't know then was that this was right out of the Saul Alinsky "Rules For Radicals" playbook, which Obama and his Chicago pals were weaned on.
 
They need a villian because dredging up the Bush name is getting old and unworkable.
 
It ain't bad enough that much of this 'Obama is America' crap is coming from people who spent eight years opining about Bush being too dumb for the office and wearing "Dissent is Patriotic" bumper stickers on their cars.
 
What do you expect from a flock of moral relativists? Why should they have a problem with a double standard when they are comfortable for whatever standard is convenient at the moment?
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This Is A Budget? Are You Nuts?

I spent the last days musing about the happier worlds of sport because they were front and center, and because I needed some time to absorb the consequences of Obama's speech Tuesday- and his follow ups to the media since.
 
The mainstream media is now focused on his "ambitious" agenda. Even the likes of Broder and Herbert don't know if he can pull all of this off, but they are obviously hoping he can.
 
I am not just hoping Obama will fall flat on his face. I will be forced to work for exactly that politically. This is the "change" that he made a point of not fleshing out on the campaign trail, because he knew he would never hold on to the bulk of the swing voters.
 
He is still trying to couch this all in centrist terms. He isn't personally for big government. After the expansion, he is going to draw it all back down and "cut the deficit in half by the end of his term". Half of what? He doesn't say. Even if it is more lawyer speak and it is half of the WWII level percentage of GDP debt he wants to create, that is STILL a disaster. Oh wait, there is more: "My team has gone through the budget line by line, and already found $2 trillion in savings". Did he tell you that over half of his "savings" is new and higher taxes?
 
He is still sticking to his story that "95%" of taxpayers won't have their taxes raised "a dime". That is, as long as they aren't paying utilities, or what do you think happens when companies start trading carbon credits? Or helping their mortgage companies fund the people who would be foreclosed even if a reasonable mortgage could be negotiated for them?
 
Health care? He is skipping the pretenses of expanding Medicare and Medicaid eligibility and creating incentives for employers to dump their health care plans into government care. We are going full-ought for "universal" health care. He still swears this isn't 'single payer', but who is left here to believe that?
 
There still is no plan for the second coming of TARP, except that the money will be spent.
 
He is planning to raise taxes on the $250,000+ class. That's a quarter mil per HOUSEHOLD, you suburbanites and small business owners. Those of you who still think that job creation and capital formation still starts with those people should know that the best alternative left for job creation will be through the government. That's the way it is across the Atlantic now.
 
He is planning to withdraw from Iraq in two years and reap the savings. But he is leaving 50,000 troops there and expanding troop levels in the Afghanistan theater. What is he going to cut? Weapon procurement? Spare parts? You try and figure that one out.
 
He is planning to let the Bush tax cuts die, and he will find the focus group semantics to not have to call it a tax increase- part of which will have to fall on some of his magic "95%" of taxpayers.
 
He is trying to turn us into Europe. Has anybody noticed that Europe has been an economic sludge for decades? That the average unemployment rate there has been stuck at 10%+ forever? That the prized jobs coming out of college in Germany and France are in the government?
 
Is that what you all want?
 
Over my politically dead body. This man is out of his mind.
 
We elected the most inexperienced, most liberal member of the Senate into the White House, because enough people wanted "change". If you don't like the color of your house and you have your children pepper it with paint guns until you can't see the original color any more, that qualifies as "change". But is it the right thing to do?
 
Guaranteed debt and faith in promises from a Chicago community activist. I'm sorry, folks. That's not good enough.
 
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Spring is Here

...As evidenced by the re-emergence of the oh-so casual calendar of early spring training baseball, where every batter is trying to get his timing down and every pitcher goes no more than three innings.
 
Relatives of mine bought me a device for my birthday that tracks any team, like a weather monitor. I have it plugged into my NY Mets, and it faithfully projects the latest box score and the upcoming schedule. Now I check it every time I pass by the kitchen window.
 
The Mets and Yankees start life in April in new stadiums. The Steinbrenner family did a better job of bribing city officials for funding, so they didn't need any corporate sponsors. If they tried to put anybody else's name before "Yankee Stadium", there might have been hell to pay from the purists. The Mets are still going through the shakeout from Citibank and their Obama money. Maybe "Bailout Field" will become a moniker that will last a lifetime, especially if they fold like a house of cards in the NL East again.
 
One of the first things people notice in my major league collection of books at home is that, among all the non-fiction tomes that nobody else wants to read, there is a decent collection of baseball history. It has been my game since I learned how to throw and hit in the eighth grade, and probably will be until I die. I could go on for a while about how I think it is a great game that is being mismanaged to death, but I would get very boring.
 
One of the peeves of mine that I've dug into lately is the use of pitching in the game. In the late '60's, the Orioles and the Mets rewrote the book by going to a five man pitching rotation, bringing the front line pitchers down from 330 innings a year to about 275. This seemed to make sense, and the results they brought made it a staple of the game.
 
Twenty years later, a new paradigm entered this world- the pitch count. Now everybody runs a five man rotation, with a hundred pitch limit per game, limiting front line pitchers to only 230 innings. The research I have seen shows that the pitch count makes perfect sense, but if you follow it up with the proper ice down and rehab, there is no reason why you can't pitch in three days instead of four.
 
This means that you can take your four best pitchers and run them for 300 innings a year, as long as they don't get their arms abused with high pitch counts on their pitching day. This also means that every team is essentially taking 250-300 innings a year and sending out minor league pitching to "save" their best pitchers. That amounts to how many games a year?
 
The first coach that hooks on to this, if they have even three good pitchers, will rewrite the manual on pitching and become the next Rube Walker or Leo Mazzone. Will it ever happen? I don't know. Habits die hard in this game, and pitchers are the most prized cattle in the slaughterhouse. The last great changes in the playbook in this game has been in the approach of hitters, and it shows.
 
It is spring, and hope rises eternal. Baseball is all about the spring and summer, and new life. Occasionally, new ideas break through, usually from teams that have nothing to lose.
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Tiger Comes Back To Life

The Nike commercial playing during the Accenture match play events was so close to truth that it must hurt some PGA members. Tiger shows up to play, and the party is over for everybody else. It was as funny as it was painfully accurate.
 
I'm only a casual golf fan, so I pretty much took some time off, too. Nothing personal, guys, but I can't get worked up over a dog fight between Sergio Garcia and Fuzzy Zoeller.
 
This is Tiger's third respite from the game, and the longest one. The second one was also for knee surgery, though less extensive than this one. The first one was the most intriguing- some time off from the tour to rework his swing with Butch Harmon.
 
And, as expected, he comes back as much a player as when he left. No time for warming up or fine tuning his game. That was all done during practice time. Tiger is thirty one years old, a pro golfer's prime. When he walks up to the tee, he is the one to beat.
 
In a world where so many deign to disappoint (Alex Rodriguez being the last in a long line), unblemished, sustained excellence is something to take time out and savor. Even if nobody is prepared to listen, I will be prepared to share with my offspring stories of Willie Mays, Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, Tom Seaver........and Tiger Woods.
 
It will be an honor to keep their legends alive. I had the same done for me with the likes of Jesse Owen, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, Bill Russell and many others. I owe it to them to do the same thing.
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Obama Overview

This may seem a little harsh to the casual observer. Obama has a history, going back to his political roots in the South Side of Chicago.
 
These roots have ingrained some of his characteristics, and many of them are not obvious to the national scene yet, because Obama has not been truly tested yet.
 
I will flesh this out in the coming months, as his policy experiments run into the walls they do, because they are well to the left of the political mainstream in this country.
 
Obama is a sneaky, smooth-talking, vindictive product of the Chicago political machine that produced the Daley family and grew the likes of Blagojevich. He has little or no respect for the Constitution and eventually will grow an enemy's list that would make Nixon proud.
 
Those of you out there that disagree with him and have any sort of media mouthpiece to do anything about it should be prepared to have the IRS start getting intimately involved with you.
 
This man does not broach opposition, when it shows evidence of working. He is confrontational when he is up against it, as evidenced most recently when he was behind in the polls in early September in the Presidential campaign.
 
The Clinton's were the same way. They had the luxury of running two Presidential campaigns against two losers, so they weren't tested there. Hillary last year had no clue about how to take down a Black man who was more than willing to dredge up the race card to his advantage.
 
Obama will do whatever it takes. The only limits he sees on his power are self imposed. The Constitution in his mind is absolutely flexible.
 
This should worry more people than it does at the moment. You'll see.
 
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Nation Of Cowards Redux

Anybody who has any questions about Eric Holder's recent treatise on race relations in America should look into the repsonse to the six Republican Governors who are thinking about refusing any money from the stimulus bill, because of all the strings attached to the federal money.
 
They are being chided from many directions for, among other things, "slapping the face of their Black citizens". So a fiscal response is now a race problem.
 
This is at the heart of why this White person would rather have his teeth drilled than engage in a heart to heart on race relations in this country: whenever I do, no matter what the skin color of the one I have it with, I run into a wall of orthodoxy that supplants me as the evildoer and can't be bargained with or talked about.
 
When I am presented with a set of premises where I am the problem, a priori, I choose to not engage. My problem is, I will not approach this with what is considered to be the correct level of guilt that Democrats do. It has been determined by many people in the political dialogue that I own this guilt and there is nothing I can do about it.
 
When I approach a conversation on race without this guilt, I am often condemned outright for doing so. The fact that I am told this and continue to do so (because I don't accept the premises) just makes things worse.
 
Obama was supposed to be the one who transcended this issue. I don't accept that. As long as I beleve that I am the one who is past this iissue, and this administartion continues to chide the likes of me for it, there will be no constructive communication on race.
 
There will be eventually. When the liberal orthodoxy that grew up on civil rights finally gets past all this and comes up to where I am- because I grew up color blind, there will be some sort of equanimity. Not until then.
 
Are we clear on this, Obama? I am not the problem. You may not be, either. But the people you have surrounded yourself with certainly are.
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Senator Gregg Bails Out

One of President Obama's biggest post-partisan trophies jumped ship last week. Word is that the last straw for him was Rahm Emmanuel deciding the the Census in 2010 was no longer a Commerce Department project, but was to be managed by the White House Chief of Staff.
 
What Senator Gregg could have been thinking in musing about heading Commerce is beyond me- and he requested the position.
 
Why it took him a whole month to realize that this administration couldn't be counted on for their word for more than a week was not surprising to me. Is he living on a different planet?
 
The notion that someting like the Census could be played with like that should give anybody pause when trying to comprehend the lack of respect this White House as for anything that gets in their way.
 
I warned all of you last year: anybody who had problems with how they were convinced the Bush administration was "trampling the Constitution" should be breathless in wonder with how Obama treats the same document.
 
When this is all over, this administration will have to be compared with FDR and Woodrow Wilson in thier self-centered notions about the "evolution" of Constitutional law. That is because, like them, Obama adjusts his view of law to what his political needs are for the day. The fact that he tries to model himself after FDR should send you all warning that he will be as blatant as Roosevelt was in his efforts.
 
Not that it matters to his supporters. To them, it is all about "change we can beleive in". When they were trashing Bush for eight years, their Constitutional concerns were political ones. They are not libertarians. They are politicians. There is a huge difference. Now that their man is in the White House, they will not have Constitutional concerns. I could talk myself silly showing how his musing about nationalizing the banks should have us all worried, but it is only a political concern to them.
 
As a libertarian, the only way to understand the cavalier approach of he Obama-ites is to understand this phenomenon.
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Stocks Go Below The Floor

I've said on a few occasions that those of you out there pondering your 401-K's should maintain and hold until this new administration would get around to establishing SOME sort of fiscal and financial policy for the markets to respond to.
 
The conventional wisdom since the fall of Lehman Brothers in September is that the bottom of any bear market usually falls 40% (+/- 5%) below the peak. That is where most people with computer triggers set their buy levels, around 7500 in the Dow Jones. This encompassed brokers, hedge managers and investors using Scottrade.
 
This is why the market has been bouncing around the 7500-8000 level.
 
The "Stimulus" bill had little or no effect on this, because Wall Street understood that it was largely a political payout for the Democrats.
 
The second coming of TARP.is a different story. This was presented as another attempt to laser target what is universally regarded as the center of the economic downturn- the toxic mortgage assets developed over the last few years by many banks.
 
They rolled out the concept without getting the specifics straight. And they STILL don't have the working parts nailed down.
 
And so the Dow has gone under the magic floor and is now flailing about in the low 7000's. And Obama is talking about closing the deficits (including the ones he is creating) by raising taxes further on the rich and raising the cap gains tax.
 
I understand he is not an Econ major, and stuck with Law in school. But can somebody clue him in on where exactly capital formation comes from? It DOESN'T come from the middle class getting an extra twent ybucks a week in April by adjusting withholding rates.
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The World Is Responding To Obama

The "test" that Biden swore would come to Obama is already happening. How?
 
We took North Korea off the terror nation list in late 2008, in return for them allowing UN inspectors back in to their nuclear facilities. Surprise, surprise, they reneged, and we are back to square one in the six party talks.
 
Iran wants us to pull all support for Isreal and apologize to Iran for our injustices before they will talk to us. In the meantime, certainly this year they will be ready to build a functioning nuke. And they have shown orbital launch capability.
 
Russia has pressed Kyrgyzstan to close our air base in Manas, which was the bulk of our support capability for our forces in Afghanistan.
 
Russia is feeling it's oats again in Eastern Europe, threatening anybody who cooperates with us on anti-missile defense.
 
That last one is expected, given Obama's campaign statements about anti-missile capabilities.
 
Now Obama is creating a surge of his own in Afghanistan and nobody seems to know what his plan is. I'm still waiting. I'd be happy with even a simple, 'because that's where Al-Quaeda is', but absent that, is this movement simply an extension of a campaign startegy to show the center he wasn't military averse and the left that Bush has screwed the Mideast pooch?
 
The Barrack and Joe team want a "reboot"? Well, you got one. The question is, when we come back on line, what the hell is it you are going to do?
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Amateur Hour

What a difference a month makes. This Presidential campaign went on for almost two years, and we all witnessed one over all others that maintained a discipline and raised a ton of money (however it may have circumvented the rules in the process) that everybody ran around in circles trying to keep up, including the hapless McCain people.
 
The crucial difference seems to be that, now that he is President, he is expected to do more than talk. Now that the cheerleading press has no more Bush to pick on, they actually notice that he makes up the rules as he goes along. That means that the cleanest, most transparent administration in history jumps through loopholes every day if it needs them. Hence the parade of former lobbyists and tax cheats who are in place because they are talented people that we need in this time of crisis.
 
So he allows the Congress to write a "stimulus" bill in a one-party, closed door conference and vote it into place before anybody else gets to see what is in it. Then he stands up and throws a line of s*** at us about how there are "no earmarks or pork" in it, using the lawyerly tactic of hoping that we will accept that because the procedures for writing it did not follow the classic Appropriations procedures.
 
So he croons on forever about the great economic crisis and passes his Treasury Secretary out to announce the new TARP provisions, which haven't been formulated yet. If Obama spent one day in the private sector, he would realize it is better to shut the hell up until you have a plan than send somebody out to do a 'deer in the headlights' routine in public.
 
Then there is the myriad of provisions that are in the great recovery bill that maybe he didn't think would et looked at? Like the provisions starting to revise prescription medication, Medicare, etc.? Or the provisions allowing states and municipalities to neuter the welfare reform of 1996?
 
Obama had a chance with me- a chance to show me that he climbed onto this platform on the backs of his leftist supporters and then grew into something that he declared over and over that he was- a post-partisan unifier. Absent that, he was a creature of his roots, a liberal, partisan, radical, vindictive by-prduct of the corrupt Chicago Democrat machine. One who thinks and talks like a lawyer. Throw all that on the political spectrum and guess how long he'll hold the center?
 
How long will it be before the people that wanted change find out that he is all talk? How long will Pelosi and Reid ride roughshod over him before he realizes that he may be boxing himself into the same hole that Clinton dd in 1993?
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