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Calderon The Small

I feel for the guy. He inherited a series of really nasty problems going in to office. The real economy there has been deteriorating for years, and Vincente Fox (his predecessor) didn't do much to help things. They have had a series of gangs become prominent in most of their cities, mostly Guatamelan and Venezuelan (heavy on the MS-13), and their police, already some of the most corrupt in the hemisphere, can do little about it. This has in turn trashed much of their tourism industry because Americans don't want to go or send their kids to places where crime and kidnapping has gone viral. 
 
And now he has problems with us, because the gangs are now of the belief that the profit in bringing their violence into our country outweighs the possible consequences.
 
Calderon is a pipsqueak, in charge of a third world economy. If he wants to stand up and announce that we are the problem because of our insatiable appetite for drugs, that's his right. If he wants to hold aloft his hypocrisy by having the draconian immigration laws that they do there, and lecture us on how we should not, that is the freedom of the small.
 
I never would hold that against him. No, the problem I have here is with the political leadership here that ignores that hypocrisy and cheers him on, for their own sakes.
 
I can try to understand all that as another cultural lodestone in our great debate. Where I run into real problems is why the hell this White House would lend themselves to this organ grinder act. Sometimes that is the price you have to pay for concessions elsewhere.
 
What do I mean by that? Here's one: In 1972, Nixon and Kissinger went to the Paris peace talks. They sat down with the Viet Cong leadership and Nixon's first act was to sit mute while the various reps of the Ho Chi Ming government tore him to pieces over everything, including the actions of the two guys who held office before him. It was often strewn with outright lies, but we took it and didn't say a word. Nixon knew that it would be on record that the small guys had told him off in person, and for that, they were willing to make concessions at the table they may not have otherwise.
 
My question is, what is Obama getting from the Calderon government for this? I can't figure that one out. And, in the absence of concessions, why the hell would he stand by and watch this guy take apart one of our states in public view?
 
That's the part that worries me. I think Obama agrees with Calderon. Sweeping into office as the great uniter, Obama and his minions seem to be fomenting a new civil war here, and I don't think they realize it.
 
The lesson from 1972 continues. Many people would not vote for McGovern that year, even though they held no great affection for Nixon, because they thought McGovern would look at the negotiations between us and the Soviets, or us and Vietnam- and turn around and kick us first. Well, we elected a professional at kicking America first, and that is why the political capital that got him elected had drifted away, leaving only his base.
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More Observations

The stock market is falling again, but it is not a panic. It is a flight to safety, and with your retirement money, folks. You should be cheered. I know I am- there is still some rationality left out there. In the short term, it is in part because the Europeans, trying to arrange an agreement to stem the problems with the currency (Greece is only the tip of the iceberg) are showing that the Ivy League economists running our government share their ideas.
 
Which brings us to the magical financial regulation and reform that Democrats here are trying to express mail to Obama's desk. They all seem to think that, either there should be less risk in the market, or they should start cleaning house of the methods the investors use to abate risk. That's the difference between those who think that Lehman and AIG are a manipulator of the market and those who think they are indicative of the market. That lesson should already have been learned. Nearly a decade ago, Sarbanes/ Oxley should have taught us by now that Congress' best efforts to not allow another Enron did not, and created another series of accounting and legal hoops for corporations to jump through, which we all pay for, folks.
 
Let's move on. The White House and the DNC looked around after the latest batch of primaries and placed a giant lawn dart on PA 12, where a Democrat won Murtha's open seat. Have you listened to this guy? He campaigned against Obama AND his health care. He is pro-gun and pro-life. He is the poster boy of the seies of conservative Dems chosen by Rahm Emanuel to win enough swing districts in '06 to take back the House. THAT is your lifeboat? Let's get this straight, folks: the only chance the Democrats have to avoid getting beaten like a pinada this year is for the President to start talking like a Tea Party spokesman.
 
Unemployment is still at 10%, and shows no signs of moving anywhere, up or down. The economy is veering between short growth spurts and flat quarters. The deeper point would have to be, what is the plan for stepping out of it? How long will it be before this White House gives up on the answer being more government spending? My own answer to that is- never. Not even after they leave office. Once John Maynard Keynes is in the blood, the only cure is formaldehyde.
 
Which leads me to my most curious observation. The new federal fiscal year starts in October- where is the budget? Nothing has been sent up to the Hill as yet. The White House seems to be operating on a series of agreements between the Senate leadership and the House Appropriations Committee. Agreements based on what? Nobody outside the room knows for sure. Is this the new Obama transparency again?
 
What I do have is a sense from nearly all the people I talk to that the $1 trillion + a year deficit spending is being considered a new baseline. My question is, if they are confident that that is the direction to go in, why do they try to hide it?
 
The mistake on their part is, no matter how much they try to sit on it, if they try to buy a Summer of peace by not hammering a budget out of it, when it does come out, there will be less time to spin it or fix it before Election Day hits, and that will probably end up being one of the final pieces in the perfect storm they are going to walk into this November.
 
The great tragedy of that is that the Chicago mafia running this administration are not political dancers. There will be no "the era of big government is over" speeches from Obama. They will try what they are doing now until the bitter end, and will do their level best to explain why their failure wasn't their fault.
 
It is interesting to watch. To me, it is like watching what would have happened if Goldwater were propelled by events to eke out a win in the '64 election, and got a lesson in why his campaign bluster all of a sudden became a hindrance. The '64 version of Barry would not have understood any better than the modern Barrack.
 
 
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The Storm This Fall

I'm not even going to go into the tried and true rule about how if one Party is spending time spinning how their losses aren't going to be as bad as all that, they're about to get drawn and quartered. This has been the DNC spin since they realized there was no change in the polls after their health care touchdown dance.

The media spin is usually closer to this November being a backlash against incumbents of both parties. The White House is actually presenting it all as support for their policies- the hubris of which caught me by surprise when they spoke of Senator Brown's election as exactly that in Massachusetts.
Truth be told, what is coming is a butt kicking of Democrats not seen since 1994, for a number of reasons, the last of which came to me last week.
 
The Democrats took a lot of GOP seats in 2006-08, first by positioning relatively conservative candiadates and then being aided by the Obama tide. These people were then pushed to argue over and then vote for health care, spending over a year with their noses pressed on the issue while state and local governments were facing budget shortfalls and unemployment was twice the rate of three years ago.
 
The GOP internecine civil war in '06, which brought the Dems the rest of the way to majority, is now essentially over. Those in the party who saw that seeking out and deporting the illegals was both impossible and politically insane have watched the shennaigans in Arizona and ceded the point to the 'security first' clan.
 
Those in the GOP leadership that didn't quite understand the nature of the Tea Party movement have seen the light. If the Tea Party asked Michael Steele to drive a Volkswagen naked, Michael would probably pick that day to get his dry cleaning done.
 
Finally, there is the underlying X-factor: Obama and his Chicago White House. For all his policy choices, his core problem is deeper. He is not an American exceptionalist. The Ivy League fruit cakes that follow him around aren't, either. But a solid majority of the country clearly is, which obligates one to deduct that includes a sizable chunk of the swing voters that vaulted him over 50%.
 
Since the Republicans are out of power, have been monolithic in their opposition to all this and are now a conduit for the groundswell of resistnace that has been bubbling for months, they will end up on the good side of this.
 
Mind you, this is still a polarized country, and the counter culture holds a third of us in their camp. There will be no surrender coming. But one side will get their butts kicked pretty well. and, for the second time in a decade, a Senate Majority Leader will lose their gavel and their seat in one ugly day.
 
Pelosi will keep her seat, as San Francisco is only above Washington DC in the rationality food chain. D.C. is where friends and foes alike were drawing crack pipes on Marion Barry's re-election posters and he still won handily.
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Supreme Court Antics

Elena Kagan is a Harvard lawyer. It seems to be an airborne disease in those hallways. Next October, she will be a Supreme Court Justice. Like Obama is fond of saying, elections mean things.
 
She is not replacing a conservative or even a swing vote, so the Judiciary Committee in the Senate, already dog tired and with bigger fish to fry, will sleepwalk her hearings through and into a vote, save for some histrionics from Jeff Sessions and friends.
 
I learned the importance of this from watching Scalia sail through unscathed, and then watching the natives march through the town square with open torches for Bork and Thomas (who was replacing Thurgood Marshall).
 
The larger point being, the makeup of the court is something even the sitting Justices watch, which is why they no longer retire unless they like the President who will be naming their replacement.
 
So, yes, she is a Harvard nut job. Her tussles with keeping military recruiters off campus is small time politics. I speak of her words on the First Amendment being judged by it's effects, which is so potentially problematic that I wouldn't have even supported her as Solicitor General. The court she will enter will quite likely not allow her to be a power of any kind. I hate to have to depend on that, but there are still voices of sanity in the legal world, even if the old joke still holds relevance about how lawyers never get prescribed Viagra because it only makes them taller.
 
This sanity is what has prevented the black robed circus animals on the Ninth Appellate Circuit (California, natch) from making the Supreme short lists. In every world, there are thinkers that try to prevail. The legal world is still dominated by a meritocracy, even if the ambulance chasers who beat shoes on the table (like Obama) seem to grow like crabgrass, especially in the Ivy League hangouts.
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More Observations

Europe finalizes a deal to bail out Greece, which everybody knew had to be done. This greases the skids for Portugal and any other countries that, as Maggie Thatcher put it, haven't "run out of other people's money" yet. All this was greeted by kudos from stock markets everywhere, but the big instability is still... us. The little kids on the playground can be stupid, as long as the goliath remains something to depend on. We have had our debt problems here for decades, but we seem to be attempting to take that act a few orders of magnitude towards the abyss. Europe, meanwhile, is a hopeless mess. They have constant double digit unemployment, astronomical taxation and incredibly bloated numbers of government employees who get paid better than the private sector, retire earlier and have pensions that everybody else envies. We are doing our best here to emulate that, and we seem to be ignoring the walls Europe is smacking into now.
 
Unemployment here is creeping closer to 10%, and the news media consistently has that as a second paragraph item behind the job growth spurt that came along with it. Because of the ideological divide that we are engulfed in, Obama running for re-election with unemployment hanging at 10% will not be the campaign killer that it would have been twenty years ago, but it will make it a lot harder to reach the swing voters that allowed him to dominate 2008.
 
Anybody who tells you that the Tea Party is a non-partisan entity is talking through their hat. Their successful efforts to end the career of Senator Bennett in Utah, along with a similar play soon in Kentucky, should make it clear that they are a subgroup of the Republican Party. The anger that they show will not end up in 2010 as an anti-incumbent wave. It will be a job killer for Democrats (at least until they can find new employment on K Street). If the GOP does not close ranks with the Tea people (and not vice versa), there may be threats of a third party candidate for President next year. But GOP Chairman Mike Steele's recent housecleaning of the financial end of the party shows he hears them well.
 
While the bulk of the 2008 stimulus package has not been spent yet (in fact, it was set up to be a 2010 campaign boost for the Democrats), the release of said funds becomes more visible and less popular as time goes by. For the last year, cash strapped states and municipalities that can't print their own money like the Feds have been using whatever they could get from Washington to stave off the belt tightening that should have started in 2008. The next year will be one of privation and sacrifice for many States and some of the larger cities. Being that the public employee base is largely a Democrat support group, this speaks to the disaster that is coming for one of our two parties this fall.
 
Whether 2012 follows the same line is up to Obama. Clinton infuriated many of his supporters by subordinating his political agenda to the state of the economy and his short term political approval ratings. Obama seems to be above all this. Adversity won't make a narcissist look in the mirror, but it may force Barrack to look into it differently. It will be interesting to see how he reacts, going into this holiday season.
 
One last thought on our yellow brick road to Europe: the axiom I grew up with was that public sector employment was a pay sacrifice and more headaches than the private sector, but there was a more concrete end in sight with pension after twenty years. Now, the average federal employee averages nearly twice what the private sector does, and the public sector is about the only place where you can consistently find a pension in your future. And I am helping fund all this, thanks ever so much.
 
Finally, anybody who thinks the cultural bickering is going to abate any time soon had better find a quiet place. And leave the TV off. Even South Park is now a current events lodestone. There's not many places to hide any more. Please try and get used to it. It is all happening for a good reason.
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The New Instability

There is a new craziness out there and it is...us.
 
Europe is going through hell right now. The Greeks are at the bottom of the debt trough, and they are waiting for the EU to bail them out. This is entirely reasonable, based on the agreements that presaged the great Euro. All of the users of the great new currency did the three musketeer song together ("one for all, all for one"), but they forgot the policing they were supposed to do to the weaker players to ensure this would rarely go into crisis mode.
 
Well, they haven't. Big surprise there. The economic drawback since 2007 has hit hard there, so no surprise at all. And hell, Argentina has a bigger economy than Greece and has gone through a few shakeouts worse than this since 1980.
 
Great Britain has often been a stabilizing influence there, conveniently refusing to do the Euro thing. But they are going through coalition government gymnastics presently. But they were going through that thirty years ago, until everybody got tired of the anarchy and got behind Margaret Thatcher. This is nothing cataclysmic, either.
 
So what is new in this world that is causing the great economic tectonic plate shifts?
 
I'll tell you what it is: our "transformative" President, who has astounded everybody on the other side of the pond with the speed of his agenda. Here is the biggest problem- he is trying to create a budget stasis with more than three times the speed of government debt creation than his predecessors. Maybe he is hoping to fund it with new taxes (which is my guess). Either we become Europe in taxation and government, or we rack up so much debt that, sometime before the end of the decade, the Fed and everybody else will have to downgrade our credit.
 
After WWII, we became the 800 pound gorilla in everybody's room. Now, we are an 8000 pound behemoth. But with size came predictability, and as long as we stayed within limits, we were everybody's ground floor.
 
Obama doesn't want to be predictable. He doesn't believe in American exceptionalism. He wants to be one of the guys.
 
Earth to Obama: they don't want us to be like them. You can't see that? Read your history. You don't have to go back far. Start with Bretton Woods in 1971.
 
Editor's Note: Apologies for the record number of typos in my baseball tome. Everything I dump here is a first draft, and sometimes I don't get my usual six hours of sleep.
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The State Of Baseball

Baseball is a wonderful game, run by creatures of habit, occasionally complete idiots. I have some rants, some old, some new. Much of it will be too much "inside baseball" (sorry) to those of you who don't love it like I do, so bear with me.
 
There is no real Commissioner, and therefore nobody to slap the owners around and tell them they are acting like infants.
 
Is Albert Pujols worth $25 mil a season? Probably. The bloat in baseball salaries comes not from the cream of the crop. It comes from using salary arbitration as a salary structure. There are probably four dozen shortstops in the major leagues. The guy half way up that scale is probably batting ..260 with little power, and is an average fielder. In salary arbitration, his agent will pose his half way position as deserving of a mid point between the league minimum and Derek Jeter. Then the union uses the results as a wage floor.
 
There are too many pitchers. Carrying two more for lefty-righty matchups is way overrated. The five man rotation is a dinosaur in the world of pitch counts. Go back to four, pull them after 100 pitches, ice them down properly and use the extra innings they can pitch to open up two slots for position players- especially that third catcher that everybody needs.
 
Call the strike zone up to the letters, instead of at the waist. Good batters lay off rising fastballs that were the bread and butter of Seaver, Carlton, Koufax and Gibson and force pitchers to use sliders and other breaking pitches as strike pitches, adding strain to their arms, forcing more walks and reaching the pitch count limit an inning or two early, bringing out the middle relievers, usually the worst pitchers on the team.
 
Oh, and a special note to the short-bus, dunderhead, skeve-brained owenrship of my beloved NY Mets: you built a beautiful new stadium and tore down that old monstrosity, and I thank you. Citi Field is wonderful, but it has a really deep right center, obviously an homage to the old Polo Grounds. It isn't bad enough the field demands a centerfielder that can run like hell and is less than thirty years old (which you don't have). It demands your mid-lineup power hitters be dead pull, because only steroids will allow you to clear that wall consistently. And I don't know if you've noticed or not, but dead pull hitters don;t exist anymore! Everybody does the Charlie Lau top hand and goes the other way with the outside pitch now. Nobody among your baseball people noticed this?
 
Oh, and there is a recession. Taking your family out and dropping two c-notes on tickets, parking and food is not a path to success if you don't have a line of bond traders looking for season packages.
 
Stop letting the batters call time like they do. Hell, Derek Jeter alone is a human rain delay. Then again, his Yankees began the new mantra in babseball, laying off anything outside the strike zone, driving the starter out by the fifth inning and teeing off on the middle relief. The Yankees average well over three hours a game, and nobody wants anything less, especially their television sponsors.
 
Do these things, and watch the average time drop from the three hours of today to the 2:15 of 1980, and you'll go mainstream again. I can't let my kids watch a full game because they end well after bedtime. Where will your fan base be after twenty years of that?
 
 
 
 
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Another One Under The Bus

David Obey has decided that being being Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee doesn't do it any more, and is not running for a 23rd term. He is "tired, and wants to spend time with his family".
 
And here is your reality check, folks. Conservatives, who regard life as a leash on government as some sort of privation, retire back to life. Liberals, who see government as some sort of religious call, stay on the floor and keep voting until the oxygen tank they drag around with them doesn't cut it any more.
 
That is, unless they realize that they aren't going to win.
 
There is polling, and there is polling. If the party is supporting you, or you can afford it yourself (and Obey can), you do two deep polls during campaign season. Deep, meaning a better sample of respondents, more cross referenced questions, better and more topical internal questions. They do get expensive quickly.
 
The first one is usually done after all primary opposition has been dispatched, and it is clear that you are the party nominee. This is done not just to let you know where you stand, but where you need to allocate precious campaign resources. The final one is usually a rolling weekly that ends around Halloween, when most of the voters have made up their minds. If you are still competitive, this one will give you a clearer picture of even more precious resource allocation- or it will let you know you are cooked- in which case you are supposed to save any unpromised funds, keep plugging away on the trail and take it like a man, so you show you are ready for next time.
 
Well, Rep. Obey obviously found out he was dead meat. He is that way for the same reason many Democrat incumbents will be this Fall. It's not so much because their agendas are that far off the cliff. It's because unemployment is still double digits and they spent a year and a half focusing on health care. In David's case, the unemployment rate is approaching 15%, the highest in the nation.
 
That isn't the only thing that will drive the Democrats off like lemmings. The Rahm Emanuel strategy from 2006 was to run relatively conservative Dems in swing districts- which, along with the GOP civil war over immigration, gave them majority status. Many of them survived two years later because Hurricane Obama blew them through, but now they have to defend a President who grows more polarizing by the day. The only thing that can stave them off from disaster is the Republicans creating a circular firing squad, which, given their recent history, is always a possibility.
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Drill Baby Drill Dies A Grisly One

In the late '70's, many policy makers, tagged repeatedly on the chin by OPEC and gas shortages, looked to nuclear power as a solution. The activists who painted nuclear as hell on earth were given a political boost by the breakdown at Three Mile Island that they still enjoy.
 
Today there are two types of anti- drilling people: the realists who are taking a second look at nuclear, and the anti-sprawl crowd who wants energy to be expensive so we will finally consume less and conserve more. The White House has both types roaming the halls.
 
The BP accident will serve to put an end to the hope where an aggressive oil drilling consensus can ever be reached here, not even if gas gets up to the magic $4 a gallon level again. Those of us who think that fossil fuels still have a necessary future here must face that down, or die another Don Quixote political death.
 
Fortunately, for those of us who respect the science enough to not regard anthropomorphic global warming as a religion, there are alternatives to oil here that can be explored. The possibility that new nuke plants can be pipelined is only something that will show itself when the public is squealing like a pig when they buy gas, but it is a possibility that didn't exist ten years ago.
 
But coastal drilling is dead. The spill in the Gulf will make sure of that. It won't be easy on the eye, folks. Brace yourselves.
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Immigration And The Third Rail

Arizona reached a tipping point this year, and now all hell has broken loose.
 
This has been building for years. The INS has become a joke, and it doesn't seem to matter who is in charge.
 
The Democrats have their reasons, cynical or not, for supporting relatively open borders. At the very least, they prize the Hispanic voting base even more than their union support, which at this point is so monolothically for them that they take it for granted as much as the African American vote.
 
George Bush maintained good Hispanic relations as Governor of Texas, and Karl Rove tried to build on that to develop his "durable coalition" in 2004- where they picked up 44% of the Hispanic vote and truly surprised the Kerry people and the DNC.
 
All that led to a GOP civil war over immigration which goes on to this day. Bush died politically trying to make immigration reform work, and watched it get filed in a trash bin labeled "amnesty". John McCain supported him, and it plagues him to this day.
 
Well, people are dying in Arizona. Hell, Phoenix is the kidnapping capital of the Western Hemisphere right now. Something had to be done. What they did there was to copy the INS policies, and give local law enforcement the power to carry them out.
 
They'll never beat a Constitutional challenge, though. Immigration and border security is too clearly a federal mandate. But the odds that Congress will come up with a solution this year is somewhere between zero and hell freezing over.
 
Attention must be paid to what is going on on the southern border. Arizona is clearly issuing a cry for help.
 
I have an idea. Why don't we follow Mexico's own policy for their southern border? They play hardball there. If you don't have ID, they send you back over the border by force. If you commit a crime without ID, you end up in prison.
 
I can't blame the Mexicans for crying over our calls for protection, even with such a intra-border hypocrisy. The second largest economy there is money shipped back from our country. It is what it is.
 
Arizona is beyond caring about the protests. They are trying to survive. What are we going to do for them?
 
 
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Obama Goes To Wall Street And Lectures

Hillary Clinton used to say, "If you want to sell a policy, you need to tell a story. And every story has to have a villian". Actually, that is something she pulled from Saul Alinsky and his newly topical "Rules For Radicals".
 
Well, this administration lives and breathes Alinsky. Obama went to the heart of the beast last week, to take Wall Street to task for their evil derivatives. As if the economy shafted two years ago because all the people out there with Series 7 licenses conjured up some new ways to take down the system. I could argue the inanity of this, conjuring up other financial inventions going back to Mike Milliken, but Obama isn't about history. He wants to sell his new regulation reform, and it helps to point out who he thinks Ol' Yeller is before Washington takes it out back to shoot it.
 
Obama should know, because, in his short life as a national figure, he was more than a marginal player in the downturn.
 
The only media figures to get the forensics of that right are the SNL people, who pegged the key players straight on, even to the point of having a George Bush character spouting apologies from the side.
 
The percentage of homeowners in America was a relatively constant 62% from soon after WWII to the early part of the last decade. That jumped to 69% by 2007. Where did that extra 7% come from? It isn't hard to follow the disaster trail.
 
The Senate and House, led by Chris Dodd and Barney Frank, used the Community Reinvestment Act of 1978 to horsewhip banks into providing home loans in redlined areas (too poor to qualify). They used CRI "points" to rate banks, and made it ammo to foster or shoot down policy or merger requests from the financial industry. Those banks that thought this game was stupid were met with ground troops trained in part by Obama, the now infamous ACORN activists.
 
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were, by the middle of the decade, watering down the requirements of home mortgage approvals to the point where Ninja loans (no income, no job, no assets) were possible.
 
None of this would have led to anything. Countrywide would never independently issue such a loan, because they would own the problem afterward. No, the last magic key came when Fannie and Freddie offered to buy up the risky paper from the private mortgage brokers.
 
So the banks could get poor folks in their own home, add the assets to their books for the quarterly reports, pick up the commissions, get their CRI points and then dump the compost on a willing government agency. Everybody is happy.
 
It gets better. Homeowners either get to sell their homes in 2005 for twice the price they paid for it in 1990, or refinance and pick up a six figure credit line.
 
Eventually, it had to end. And now I get to watch the esteemed Senator from Connecticut lecture Wall Street minions from his Chairman's gavel. Nobody seems to find any puerility in this?
 
I'm not even going to get into the stream of how much of this new regulation is about federal control of the financial industry. We're too far gone here to contemplate Bill Buckley's notion (raised every few years) that "The problem with Socialism is Socialism. The problem with Capitalism is Capitalists." In other words, our financial system is not doomed to failure by definition, but it gets plagued by rogues who game the system in reprehensible ways.
 
So find the problem and deal with it. I've found the source here, and the problem is in our government. Any ideas, folks?
 
I have a few.
 
 
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Can We Finally Fix The Housing Problem?

I'm so tired of this subject, but it won't go away. There are two large garbage trails from the end of the housing bubble. Nobody is seriously addressing either one, and it is driving me puke crazy.
 
The second one is by far the more intractable issue. Developers that were in love with new housing for investment value circa 2007 are now sitting on homes and propoerties they can't sell. Either the market value won't make up for the money they put in, there are no buyers, or they are sitting in communities that won't allow them to become rental property. This is going to be an issue that will not go away soon, and to be honest, I have no solutions. Anybody have any ideas?
 
The simpler problem is the biggest factor behind the explosion of foreclosures this year- especially in the war zone states, California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida. That would be the "underwater" mortgages, where the present assessment value was below the mortgage amount.
 
After Lehman Brothers bought the farm in September 2008, Bush and Treasury Sec Paulson brought in the usual suspects (including the eighteen month junior Senator from Chicago, tacitly representing his party at that point) to negotiate the targets of the new TARP program.
 
The idea germinated there was to take about $750 bil and target the core of the problem: the bad mortgage assets on the books of all the banks. It was a wonderful idea, but nobody could figure out exactly how to implement it, and here we are.
 
I have an idea: if your mortgage is underwater, apply for a new one at the value of your latest tax assessment. Use the TARP money to pay off the difference with the lender. If you have the income and assets to qualify for a new mortgage, you get a new start. Then you can sell and move out if you need to.
 
I can't figure out why something like this hasn't been tried yet. We're spending the money by the truckload anyway- this first truckload was agreed upon because it was supposed to be targeted to the heart of the problem. Six months later, it was being used to bail out state and local governments (mostly through grant applications) because they couldn't print money to weather the recession like Washington.
 
I know nobody is near the heart of the problem, because if they were, the Community Reinvestment Act would be an expletive in mixed company. And Senator Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank would not only be without elective office, but they would be spayed for caution's sake.
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The Tea Parties Finally Arrive

For the longest time, they were ignored. I was warning you all here a year ago that there was a groundswell reaction coming, because I wasn't near the only one out there that was looking at the first few months of this administration and feeling like they were living the first chapters of Atlas Shrugged.
 
They had a presence at the Town Hall meetings last year, but the primary focus (rightly so) were the Seniors who were getting the wits scared out of them by the reports of Medicare cuts.
 
No, it took a while, but the Tea Parties are now part of the national consciousness. They are no longer ignored. Now they are ridiculed. They are bigots. They are hateful. They are dangerous- read Bill Clinton and part deux of his 'conservatives brought on Oklahoma City' act.
 
This should be madness, but at this point it is merely amusing. Ever been to a tea party rally? Lately? They send out e-mails with dress codes, and behavior warnings. They admoish signs that are considered negative TV targets. They are polite. They don't litter.
 
The good pollsters know what they are. They are regular voters. Zogby and Rasmussen are watching these people like hawks.  There is a reaction coming this November, and it will be a harsh one. It is Gertrude Himmelfarb's "dissonant culture" having had more than enough of the counter culture majority in Washington.
 
It really isn't complicated.
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Obama Micromanages NASA, Too.

The President pulls the funding for the Constellation rocket program. No, wait, the funding is still there, he's just pulling the program. Obama wants other things, notably that the future of space exploration should be less pure science and more targeted programs that can produce concrete results.
 
And he got an earful last week from the great NASA recluse, Neil Armstrong, who took the President to task for creating a situation where, for the forseeable future, we will only get men into space if we send $50 mil per man to the Soviets to hitch a ride.
 
Mr. Armstrong is talking about the right thing, but not for the right reasons. The primary problem is national security. I'll say it again, folks: there were two great techs in the 1980's that won the Cold War for us. One was missile defense, which at that point didn't work- but the Soviets never had an idea how much processing power we were capable of, and that was the great X factor. The other one was the space shuttle.
 
You could plant a high school scientist with a pair of binoculars outside of Vandenburg AFB, track the launches and pretty much guess what we were throwing up there. But every time we closed the cargo bay doors on the shuttle and sent it up on a DOD mission, they had no fargin' idea what was going up. It scared the crap out of them.
 
We need to be able to launch men into space at will. We need to do satellite maintenance. We need to maintain a presence with the Chinese and the Soviets in orbit, because they are not always our pals.
 
Of course there is more out there. We need to colonize a low gravity planet with a water source, to create an outpost for food and fuel for longer travel. I want to know what's under the ice on some of Jupiter and Saturn's larger moons. We need to get out there, and until we create a tensile cable elevator to a geosynchronous orbiting platform, the jump from Earth into low orbit will have to be a rocket.
 
But the first issue is national security. No getting around that. Which is why, after the NSA people get done taking a ball peen hammer to Obama's toes later this year, the decision will be made to continue the shuttle program a while longer. You heard it here first.
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Crime Waves In LA, Chicago, New York City

Some lessons are never learned. In the early '90's every large city in the country was overrun by the crack epidemic. (The only exception was Chicago, where the gangs were strong enough to hold on to the cocaine trade for about five years). Crack was so simple, cheap and marketable that the streets were ruled by whoever was the craziest this week. The cops no longer knew who was in charge.
 
Then Rudy Giuliani was elected NYC Mayor in 1993, and he brought on Police Chief Bratton. They did three concrete things right away. First, they set baselines for each precinct for crime levels, and held the Watch Commanders accountable for an action plan. Second, if the plan didn't work, they demoted and replaced the Watch Commander. (Boy, did that ever shake up a few people). Finally, they stopped ignoring the little things like subway turnstile jumping and started running every miscreant they encountered into through the system for past warrants, and started to clear the streets.
 
I worked in NYC in the late '80's. I survived the areas I worked mostly because I look like a cop. Ten years later, I worked the same areas again, and there were Swedish families out there at 11PM, taking pictures of each other on the street.
 
Those who hated Giuliani derided the crime reduction as something else- changing demographics, statistical manipulation, anything but Rudy.
 
Now the cities are forgetting these lessons, as all good Democrats will. The increased crime will be passed off to other factors. Nobody in LA is about to look in the mirror and admit that they are so sensitive about their treatment of immigrants that the "Thirteeners" are running rampant on them. The lesson there is, when you create a "sanctuary city", you bring about a circus where other people need the "santuary".
 
How does one fix the problem? The model of behavior is still there, from NYC almost twenty years ago. Any questions? Feel free to ask me. I lived through it.
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